Who could have guessed that the ultimate fantasy football guide would be created more than 2,500 years ago? Sun Tzu’s The Art of War offers guidance on military strategy and tactics, with a primary focus on defeating the enemy without direct conflict.
Applying the lessons of the book has aided in military conflicts and the business world. The Art of War was written as a comprehensive guide to assist in preparation, mobilization, attack, and defense, emphasizing the need for planning and strategy before ever setting foot on the battlefield.
When examining the principles, a case can be made that this composition is underutilized in today's society, and certainly so within the fantasy football industry. Today, let’s introduce The Art of Auction Drafts:
Choosing the Right Terrain
Tracking Your League Settings
Like any draft, knowing what you're getting yourself into and the lay of the land is vital. Not all drafts are created equal; many have unique scoring that could lead to certain assets gaining or losing value. It's pretty simple: auction drafts and re-draft leagues are nothing alike. Auction drafts are a beast all their own.
Understanding the finer scoring details and roster needs provides managers with a tactical yet critical advantage against their adversaries when bids begin to come in. For instance, if your league has a tight end premium where the position is awarded additional points per reception or first downs, that will undoubtedly push the value of the elite tight end options. The same goes for leagues that award running backs additional fantasy value per rushing attempt, leading to a workhorse back seeing an increase of $5 or more against what would be considered the norm.
In Superflex leagues, quarterbacks will be coming off the board at a premium, and you’ll want to prioritize the position to land at least one elite option. Meanwhile, if your league limits you to a single quarterback starting spot, that changes everything. From here, you have a couple of options. Quarterback is where you can save money and reinvest it into another position.
Your league will either pay up on elite players (like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels), thus creating value plays at a discounted price. Either that, or they may devalue the position because of the overall depth, allowing you to get an elite option at an affordable price. Unfortunately, it's difficult to predict, so you must be prepared to make adjustments early on.
Deception
Work the Personalities
Each league has a distinct personality. Within that league, you must navigate between seven and upwards of 15 additional personalities. Deception can surprise the opposition and help gain an advantage on draft day. The Art of Deception is considered the cornerstone of Sun Tzu's strategy — all warfare is based on deception, after all.
"Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak" is a famous quote from an ancient text, and when applied in fantasy, it instructs us to keep the room guessing for as long as possible. If you have adequately prepared and put your plan of action into place, work that plan, but remain fluid. If your end game is to spend on elite receivers, it's okay to get one early, but it's also OK to return to the position when the time is right and you've built your running back stable.
It's also fun to work the room a little after losing a hotly contested bid on a player you didn't necessarily value with a comment expressing envy or disappointment. By doing so, you may tip off some managers that you are looking to add a player of that caliber at that position, when in reality, that is not the case.
Listen, people love being loved, we can't help it. Occasionally, throw out a "That's a great pick" or "He went for less than expected.” Deception is defined as the act of misleading someone, and if you can get your opponent into a false sense of security, that will benefit you later on.
Adaptability and Flexibility
Prioritize Tiering Over Rankings
Adaptation is key to war. Flexibility is a certainty. Rankings are great for regular drafts. For auctions, focus on the tiers. Check out the Fantasy Points Auction Value Cheat Sheet, which assigns a monetary value to each player. From there, it's easy enough to adapt and create tiers among the rankings provided.
If looking at the wide receiver position, it's clear that Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, and Malik Nabers are in an elite tier. In that tier, we can expect similar production; however, the price point differs for each player. While you are unlikely to "get a deal,” you can still add an elite option and use the savings later in the draft.
Having a tiered system gives fantasy managers a psychological edge. Rankings can make you feel that a higher-ranked player is the one you must have, creating an unnecessary emotional connection to the player and forcing you to overspend. Tiering enables flexibility in your roster construction and budget allocation.
"Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing."
Know Yourself and the Enemy
Know the Room
"If you know the enemy and know yourself, your victory will not stand in doubt."
Which managers are naturally aggressive, and which sit back and let the board come to them? It's also important to know if your opponents have any "my guys" or an infatuation with the players on their favorite team. All this knowledge can be weaponized in an Auction Draft.
A few years back, one manager was all in on Zack Moss during the Kings Classic, and the league knew this. Moss was one of the first players to be nominated, and the league ended up bidding the player up, and one manager couldn't resist. In the end, Moss ended up costing the manager an additional $8 compared to his estimated market value, ultimately leading to buyer's remorse.
"If the enemy leaves a door open, you must rush in."
Strategic Planning and Preparation
Create a Par Sheet for Budget Allocation
For fantasy managers who are first getting started in auction drafts, a "Par Sheet" is a must. So, what is a Par Sheet? It is a fantasy football ledger that Drew Davenport coined, which tracks all your spending (and that of your league mates), allowing you to hit "par" by spending all your money while not spending it too quickly, essentially providing guardrails during the auction.
"He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared."
The Par Sheet allows managers to map out a budget and allocate funds they are willing to spend at each position and on each roster spot. You can do this by using a dollar amount or assigning a percentage of your overall budget, for example:
Quarterback - 4 to 8% ($7 to $12)
Running Back - 35% to 40% ($70 to $80)
Wide Receiver - 51% ($102)
Tight End - 5% ($10)
Kicker - 0.5% ($1)
DST - 0.5% ($1)
These numbers can be adjusted as needed depending on the manager's preferences. From here, you can also decide what you'd be willing to bid for an elite wide receiver by allocating 27.5% ($55-$60) for a Chase or Jefferson on the par sheet, which will let you know if that keeps you on budget or if you need to adjust. If you overspend at the WR1 spot, the par sheet can be adjusted, where you can either take some funding away from the WR2 or from another position altogether.
Where this also comes in handy is if you win the bid on Derrick Henry for $32, and you are happy to have him as your RB1, then the $45 you may have had earmarked for that becomes $13 that can be reallocated elsewhere or offset the cost of overspending on another player to balance the books.
Economy of Force
Pressure Versus Precision
Drew Davenport said it best when he talked about putting pressure on your leaguemates, forcing them to become uncomfortable and ultimately making mistakes. This differs from knowing your enemy's narrative in that it involves a calculated risk, where you must be able to set aside your emotions.
Avoid unnecessary engagements and focus on yourself. In doing so, you retain resources for when they are needed.
If you have prepared beforehand, the pressure on your peers will allow you to make precise moves. It's ideal to have a plan and follow it through. However, it's also important to recognize that plans often go awry. Your preparation will enable you to pivot and make informed decisions rather than make mistakes.
One way to pressure the opposition is by attacking a tier early. Don't be that manager who is left bidding on that last player in a specific tier along with 11 other managers; that never ends well, and you will undoubtedly be overpaying at that point. Be in on that first or second player while other managers weigh their options and strike.
The best practice for this is to set the tone with early nominations before the draft wakes up and notices what you are doing.
Attack Where He Is Unprepared
With most auction drafts, the first 10 or so nominations set the tone. Tzu said, "appear where you are not expected."
Within those first 10 nominations, you often pay the industry standard for elite talent. Here is where you catch many fantasy managers sleeping. Drew Davenport refers to this nomination period as a "Sit Down" bonus, meaning the other managers haven't even sat down to digest what has happened.
There are two forms of currency within an auction draft. One is the obvious bidding allocation. You only have so much money to address your roster. Second, you only have so many roster spots. By attacking early while others are still getting a feel for the room, you get the best value for your money and roster.
Once the draft gets into full swing, managers find themselves in an undesirable position of reacting instead of attacking, and more often than not, making a bid out of necessity.
Utilizing Spies and Intelligence
Know the Hammer
Following up on tracking finances means knowing who the "Hammer" is. There will always be one manager who sits back early in the draft and allows others to spend. Understanding "The Hammer" will allow you to avoid becoming the nail. This manager entered the draft knowing they would miss out on elite talent, but their frugalness will lead to more depth than anyone else.
When this manager starts getting to work, they understand where they are going, and you need to pivot. This manager will look you in the eye during a bidding war, seemingly telling you, without speaking, "I am going to get whoever I want, and you can't do anything about it". It's very primal.
In today's age of technology, it's relatively easy to gain intel, not only in preparation for dealing with The Hammer but the rest of the league as well. If you have previously competed with some in the league, you should have a mental notebook on how they like to work the draft; for others, gathering information through espionage or the internet is just a click away. With enough research, you'll know what everyone hopes to do before they know themselves.
While tracking your finances is essential, monitoring everyone else's finances and roster builds is just as important. By doing so, you can avoid getting into bidding battles. If you know multiple league mates haven't addressed the running back position, then the position scarcity could lead to bad financial decisions when you get to the third tier.
Knowing what your league mates need and the available funds allows you to make rational decisions about whether or not to bid on a specific player. Knowing their financial positions will enable you to make informed bids, applying the pressure we discussed earlier, especially if you are in a better financial position. He who has the money controls the bid.
Avoiding Prolonged Warfare
Side Step Price Enforcing or Bidding Battles
It's very easy to let emotions get the better of us. For many, the need to win a bid surpasses the actual need for the player. With each bid made, our resources become increasingly scarce. There is a time when you need to understand when to cut your losses and walk away.
Along with bidding battles comes price enforcement. When certain players are nominated, a point will come when many managers' resources have been exhausted, and it will appear as though someone is going to acquire a player at a discounted price. When this occurs, it will be hard to resist temptation and bid on a player you may not even need to ensure that someone else doesn't receive value.
If you aren't careful, you may win that bid for a player you weren't interested in. Remember, two currencies are at play here, and it's not like you can cut a player to free cap space.
Conclusion
By applying these nine core principles, fantasy football managers will be better prepared to tackle their auction drafts ahead of the upcoming season.
"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."
