Hansen's Hints: 2025 NFL Week 6

My goal for this article is to cover every nook and cranny for all remaining matchups after the practice week concludes Friday while also making it easy to consume so you know everything you need to know after a 10-15-minute read.

This year, I tried to tweak my process a little in an effort to be less wordy, and to make it easier to quickly scan the article and pick up the most important analysis included in a less than five minute read, but I failed again. Too much info.

PS: Here’s a look at the main abbreviations I’ll be using:

• ASS: Fantasy Points Data’s Average Separation Score metric.

• FP/RR: Fantasy points per route run

• TP/RR: Targets per route run

• YPRR: Yards per route run

• RS: Route share

• FRTS: First-read target share

• FP/DB: Fantasy points per dropback

• PROE: Pass/pressure rate over expectation

• YBC/Att: Yards before contact per attempt

• XFP: Expected fantasy points (based on snaps, routes, touches, etc.)

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets, 9:30 a.m., Sun., London

FANTASY INJURIES:

• BRONCOS: They lost LG Ben Powers, who did make the trip.

• JETS: They won’t have Allen Lazard, and Josh Reynolds has been stepping up lately. They’re down slot CB Michael Carter again, a small break for Denver. Starting CB Brandon Stephens (neck) was limited all week and is listed as questionable, so they could be down 2 of the top-3 CBs.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• It’s a plus schematic matchup for BO NIX, whose Broncos rank fourth in pass rate over expectation (6.0%), which we love. He’s off to a slower start, but he’s been decidedly better the last two weeks, so the arrow is likely pointing up. The Jets allow the ninth-fewest passing YPG (214.2), but they’ve been struggling on the back end, even Sauce Gardner, and NY is only 29th in pressure rate (31%), and Nix has been measurably better from clean pockets compared to when he’s pressured. He may not have to do much, but the Jets give up the third-most passing TDs per game (2.2), so it’s very likely that Nix gets 2-3 here.

• The Jets give up the fourth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.33), so it’s not a cake matchup for J.K. DOBBINS. Still, the Jets give up the seventh-most rushing YPG (109.0), and Dobbins averages 17.3 carries in their three wins this year, and they are 7-point road favorites, so his volume opportunity looks good. Every lead back has reached 13.9+ FP against the Jets.

• The Jets give up the ninth-most receiving YPG (76.4) and the third-most YPRR (2.11) to slot receivers, so TROY FRANKLIN is reach-worthy. He’s been fairly consistent with 8.4+ FP and 35+ yards in four of his five games. Secondary guys Ryan Flournoy (6/114 receiving) and Sterling Shepard (4/80) have produced in this matchup in the last few weeks. They’re down slot CB Michael Carter again, which is a small break for Franklin and Denver.

• MARVIN MIMS is actually the WR27 from Weeks 4-5 with 12.2 FPG, thanks largely to 20 yards and a TD rushing, but he does have 11 targets and 8/79, and he could always steal the show any given week. This week, we show him with a massive schematic matchup advantage, and down slot CB Michael Carter again, which can’t hurt.

• The Jets give up the 12th-most receptions per game (5.4) and the 10th-fewest receiving YPG (40.4) to TEs, which sounds about right for EVAN ENGRAM, who has 4/33 and 4/29 the last two weeks with a TD. Jake Ferguson (7/49/2 receiving) and Darren Waller (3/27/2) have crushed NY the last two weeks.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Jets give up the second-fewest receiving YPG (16.0) to RBs, which is a bad look on paper for rookie R.J. HARVEY. They also give up the second-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-4.9) to RBs in the passing game.

• The Broncos use the highest rate of man coverage (43.7%), and GARRETT WILSON averages an eye-popping 3.96 YPRR and .32 TPRR on 28 routes against man. Of course, he’s likely to catch a shadow from Patrick Surtain, who allows a stingy .21 FP/RR. He stopped A.J. Brown last week (5/43), and Wilson had only 5/41 receiving on 8 targets in this matchup last season. Wilson will have to score to get to 12+ FP most likely.

• He leads the league in explosive run rate (16.7%), but this is a tough spot for BREECE HALL, since Denver gives up the ninth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.56), and the 16th-fewest rushing YPG (82.2) to RBs. They do give up the sixth-most receiving YPG (46.2), but Isaiah Davis last week led Hall in route share (43%>35%). Hall also pathetically posted 10/4 rushing and 2/14 receiving against the Broncos last season. They held Saquon Barkley to 6/30 rushing and 3/58/1 receiving last week, and now Davis is a real threat to his receiving production, so Hall probably needs a TD to come through.

• It’s a week to lower expectations on MASON TAYLOR, who has been Mr. Zone Beater this year. But Denver uses the highest rate of man coverage (43.7%), against which he averages a wretched .13 YPRR and .13 TPRR on 24 routes. Denver gives up the seventh-fewest receptions per game (4.0) and the 12th-fewest receiving YPG (42.6) to TEs, and Dallas Goedert got only 3/19 receiving in this matchup last week. Goedert did score, which is what Taylor will likely have to do to hit 10+ FP.

THE REST:

• Denver played the Jets in an ugly game last September with only 60 passing yards, and COURTLAND SUTTON got them all with 3/60/1. He survived a Quinyon Mitchell shadow last week with 8/99 on 10 targets, but this week he’ll likely get a lot of Sauce Gardner, who is allowing a generous .31 FP/RR these days. He’s still one of the better corners in the league, so it’s not a cake matchup for Sutton, but Sauce gave up a 43-yard TD to George Pickens last week, and it’s also a plus schematic matchup, since they play a lot of man, and he’s impossible to sit.

• Something has to give for JUSTIN FIELDS, who has a great schematic matchup, but will have to deal with his top target dueling in the toughest individual matchup in the league. The Broncos use the highest rate of man coverage (43.7%), and he averages 8.59 YPA with 4 TDs on 21 dropbacks against man coverage with 2/70/1 on scrambles. Jalen Hurts got only 2/3 rushing against the Broncos last week, but at the end of the day, Fields has been a mid-range QB1 in his career starts, and he’s the QB4 in FPG this year so he’s doing it again.

• For what it’s worth, with bad matchups for Garrett Wilson and Mason Taylor, I like JOSH REYNOLDS to hit his over on yardage (O15.5). Reynolds showed up last week with 4 targets and 3/29 receiving.

Looking BETTER than usual: JK Dobbins, Bo Nix,

Looking WORSE than usual: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Mason Taylor

Reach plays: Evan Engram, Troy Franklin, Josh Reynolds

Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• RAMS: RT Rob Havenstein is doubtful, so their OL could be looking better. WR Tutu Atwell was limited all week (hamstring) and their TEs are banged up, so more for top-2 WRs.

• RAVENS: Lamar Jackson is out, and Cooper Rush gets another start. They’re down a starting CB in Chidobe Awuzie and stud LB Roquan Smith is also out. They again will be without FB Patrick Ricard.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Ravens have allowed the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs (+8.1), and PUKA NACUA has run 43.7% of his routes from the slot this year. The Ravens have deployed single-high looks at a top-4 rate this season (61.8%), and they have moved from being a heavy Cover 1 team (7th-most in Weeks 1-4) to a Cover 3-heavy (54.3% in Week 5, the most of any defense). Puca’s target share grows 42.1% against single-high looks this season, and he leads the NFL with a 4.82 YPRR against single-high, commanding over half of his team’s first-read targets. They use the third-highest rate of man coverage (40.1%), and Puca averages an insane 4.19 YPRR and a fat .47 TPRR on 47 routes against man. The Ravens also give up the sixth-most YPRR (1.96) and the third-most receiving YPG (92.6) to receivers lined up inside, and they rank top-5 in deep receiving YPG allowed (56.4), so all indications are that Puca stays sizzling hot this week.

• The Rams are 7.5-point favorites, and in 11 games the Rams have won by at least 7 points since he became the starter, KYREN WILLIAMS averages 20+ FPF. The Ravens have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+7.7), and thanks in part to a Blake Corum fumble, Williams’ role increased and he had a career-high in target share (21.3%). It’s also a good schematic matchup for Kyren, since half of Kyren’s rush attempts (14th-most) have utilized man/gap concepts, and the depleted Ravens defense is allowing the 2nd-most YPC (6.02) and the 5th-highest success rate (58.6%) to opposing man/gap runs, compared to just 3.30 YPC against zone runs. They may need him for only 2-3 quarters, but I might take three quarters from Kyren in this matchup over four full quarters for most of the field. The Ravens give up fifth-most rushing YPG (117.0), and the third-most receiving YPG (40.2) to RBs. BLAKE CORUM could actually work as a blowout reach play in this one

• The Ravens have allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+7.8) and rank top-5 in deep receiving YPG allowed (56.4), so with no pass rush to speak of coming from the Ravens, MATTHEW STAFFORD should stay hot and eat as long as they want. They use the third-highest rate of man coverage (40.1%), and Stafford averages an excellent 8.49 YPA with 6 TDs and a 127.9 passer rating on 59 attempts against man. They’ve also surrendered the third-most passing YPG (270.2) and the most passing TDs per game (2.6) to QBs with C.J. Stroud (244/4 passing) and Patrick Mahomes (270/4) going off against them the last two weeks.

• The Rams are an outside funnel, allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs, who see a +4.6 FP boost against LA. They have leaned more toward single-high looks this year (56.3%, 11th-most), and ZAY FLOWERS averages a fat 3.04 YPRR against single-high looks since the start of last season. They use the fourth-highest rate of Cover 3 (40.1%), and he averages a strong 2.06 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 34 routes against that coverage. LA gives up the seventh-most receiving YPG (159.6) and the eighth-most receptions per game (13.2) to WRs and got crushed last week by Kendrick Bourne (10/142). He was limited to open the week with a shoulder injury, so there is a chance he’s pulled early in a blowout (bye week next week), but if he’s playing to win for even 2-3 quarters, Flowers should clean up, or at least hit his prop of over 50.5 yards.

• If desperate, the Rams give up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs in the passing game (+4.7), so JUSTICE HILL could do something here. Of course, so could KEATON MITCHELL.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The prospect of DERRICK HENRY taking on a top defense without Lamar Jackson as 7.5-point home underdogs is pretty scary. LA gives up the 11th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.74), 3.4 YPC, and the eighth-fewest rushing YPG (71.8) to RBs. The Rams have yet to allow a rushing TD to an RB, and held a superior Jonathan Taylor to just 17/76 rushing and 5/20 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago. There’s no more analysis needed: based on what we’ve seen so far, it would be a miracle if Henry ran for even 75+ yards. If he does, it’ll likely be due to one long run, which is impossible to count on.

THE REST:

• The Ravens have allowed the 8th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+3.2) along with the 13th-most receiving YPG (109.0) to receivers aligned out wide. They also rank top-5 in deep receiving YPG allowed (56.4), and DAVANTE ADAMS has a higher aDot compared to Puca Nacua (13.2 vs. 9.0). The schematic matchup is fine, since they use the third-highest rate of man coverage (40.1%), and he averages 2.25 YPRR and .27 TPRR on 55 routes against man. He’s still out there #winning, ranking second in A.S.S. (.212) and second in win rate (23.6%) among WRs who’ve run 75+ routes. On the downside, they may not need him to do much against a bad offense, and he will often see top CB Nate Wiggins, who has been stingy.

• We have this as a poor schematic matchup for MARK ANDREWS, largely due to the Rams deploying the fourth-highest rate of Cover 3 (40.1%), which he averages a terrible .67 YPRR and .10 TPRR against. LA has been weakest on the outside, and they give up the 15th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to TEs (-1.9), but they do give up the 12th-most receptions per game (5.4) to TEs, and Jake Tonges got 7/41/1 receiving in this matchup last week. If Tyler Huntley gets in the game, that’s actually good news for Mandrews, who has had some good games with Huntley. In his first start in 2021, Huntley leaned on Andrews with 10 targets and 8/73 receiving. Of course, Cooper Rush gets the start, and Isaiah Likely is also back and it’s a better schematic matchup for him than it it for Andrews.

• The Rams have allowed the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing WRs (+6.1), and it’s a good schematic matchup for RASHOD BATEMAN, but he has only 3 targets (across five quarters) from Cooper Rush over the past two weeks (compared to Zay Flowers’ 10), so he’s a desperation play only.

• Perhaps COOPER RUSH wasn’t the right man for the job when they hired him to be Lamar Jackson’s backup. He was 14-of-20 passing for 179 yards, which is pretty good, but he also completed three passes to the players on the other team, so they may go with Tyler Huntley if Rush stinks again.

Looking BETTER than usual: Puca Nacua, Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams

Looking WORSE than usual: Derek Henry

Reach plays: Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• COWBOYS: No CeeDee Lamb again, and no KaVontae Turpin again, so it’s Ryan Flournoy time. Miles Sanders is out again, so rookie Jayden Blue will get some snaps and chances. RG Tyler Booker is out again and LG Tyler Smith was limited all week. They’re down a starting LB in Jack Sanborn.
• PANTHERS: No Chuba Hubbard again this week, so it’s Rico Dowdle. TE Ja'Tavion Sanders worked all week (limited), so I guess we’ll see if he’s active Sunday. They’re down RT Taylor Moton, not good. They’re down starting DE Tershawn Wharton, which can’t hurt Dallas.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Panthers are a top-5 pass funnel by PROE allowed (+4.8%), while the Cowboys have the 8th-highest PROE (+3.8%), and it’s also a great schematic matchup for Dak Prescott, who has JAKE FERGUSON on a team-high 40% of his routes against Cover 3, which the Panthers use at the third-highest rate (42%). Carolina is also giving up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+5.5) as well as the most receiving YPG (80.2) and the sixth-most receptions per game (6.4) to TEs. Darren Waller posted 5/78/1 receiving in this matchup last week. It’s not the best schematic matchup for Javonte Williams on the ground, and George Pickens may be contained by Jaycee Horn (not a shadow situation, though), so the safe money should be on Ferguson getting doused with targets again, and he should easily hit 50+ yards and 10+ FP.

• The Cowboys have a top-3 implied total this week (26.5) and they’re 3.5-point favorites, and JAVONTE WILLIAMS leads all RBs in fantasy points per snap while leading this year (+31% more than the next-closest RB). It is a so-so schematic matchup, since 50.6% (12th-most) of his carries have utilized man/gap concepts and the Panthers have been tough defending those carries (3.81 YPC allowed) compared to zone carries (4.98 YPC allowed, 4th-most). But Carolina does give up the 13th-most rushing YPG (90.8), and the beauty of Javonte this year is he can help you with TDs, catches, and rushing volume. No Miles Sanders helps.

• The Panthers have been the most run-heavy in the NFL by PROE when trailing over the past three weeks (-13.2%), so it’s clear that RICO DOWDLE will be getting 15+ touches this week, and Dallas has allowed the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing opposing RBs (+8.1), the 12th-most rushing YPG (91.4), and the most receiving YPG (59.8) to RBs. It’s a revenge game for Rico, and he knows it, so with Chuba Hubbard out, Rico is hard to sit.

• TETAIROA MCMILLAN is much better against man (4.10 YPRR) than zone (1.36 YPRR), so it’s not a good schematic matchup. But the Cowboys have allowed the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+15.6) and the most receiving YPG on deep throws traveling 20+ yards downfield (104.8), and Tet ranks top-10 in the NFL in air yards (481). They also give up the third-most receiving YPG (139.8) and the most YPRR (2.65) to outside receivers, and we should not be worried about CB Trevon Diggs, and hopefully they can get him on Kaiir Elam, who has given up the 340 receiving yards (second-most) in his primary coverage this year with 4 receiving touchdowns, tied for 2nd-most in the league.

• The Cowboys have allowed the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+8.7), but it’s not the best schematic matchup for BRYCE YOUNG, since Dallas is zone-heavy and Young is much better against man. In fact, Dallas uses the ninth-highest rate of Cover 3 (35.3%), and he averages a wretched 4.09 YPA with a 50.4 passer rating and -.4% CPOE on 56 attempts against the coverage. The good news is this game has the week’s highest over/under (49.5), and regardless of scheme, Dallas is beatable and gives up the most passing YPG (304.0) and the sixth-most rushing YPG (29.6) to QBs with QBs accounting for multiple TDs against them in every game.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Panthers use the third-highest rate of Cover 3 (42%), and GEORGE PICKENS averages a massive 3.68 YPRR and .25 TPRR on 56 routes against the coverage. However, Carolina gives up the sixth-fewest YPRR (1.68) and the second-fewest receiving YPG (79.2) to outside receivers, and a lot of that is Jaycee Horn, who has given up a stingy 0.22 FP/RR. We’re not projecting a shadow, but Horn could easily prevent a big day from Pickens. The good news is this game has one of the highest over/under totals of the week (49.5), and George can’t be stopped in a shootout.

THE REST:

• The Panthers are a top-5 pass funnel by PROE allowed (+4.8%), while the Cowboys have the 8th-highest PROE (+3.8%), and it’s also a great schematic matchup for Dak Prescott, sees a +82% boost to his FP/DB (0.71 FP/D, QB3), against Cover 3 this year. He’s playing well and ranking top-3 in catchable throw rate (90.2%) and highly accurate throw rate (70.5%) against Cover 3, despite a top-12 aDOT on those dropbacks (8.6) with an excellent 9.02 YPA with a 124.7 passer rating and a 12.3% CPOE on 61 attempts. He should be set throwing to Jake Ferguson, but the Panthers give up the eighth-fewest passing YPG (211.6) to QBs, so Dak may need 2-3 TDs to have a big day. The good news is both Tua Tagovailoa and Drake Maye accounted for 3 TDs in back-to-back games in this matchup the last two weeks.

• The Panthers give up the 13th-fewest receiving YPG (64.8) and the 13th-most YPRR (1.74) to receivers aligned in the slot, and we do show this as a positive schematic matchup for JALEN TOLBERT. But Tolbert has not been great against Cover 3, which he’ll see 40% of the time, and RYAN FLOURNOY already has shown he has more upside.

• The Cowboys give up the fifth-most YPRR (2.02) and the 16th-fewest receiving YPG (65.8) to receivers aligned in the slot, but it’s a leap of faith to try out XAVIER LEGGETTE, even though flashed on his catches last week, and TE JA'TAVION SANDERS could be back. JALEN COKER is out, though.

Looking BETTER than usual: Jake Ferguson, Javonte Williams, Tet McMillan, Rico Dowdle

Looking WORSE than usual: George Pickens

Reach plays: Ryan Flournoy, Bryce Young

Arizona Cardinals at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• CARDINALS: Kyler Murray (foot) was limited all week, but he should go. For those that dig deep, Zay Jones is questionable with Greg DORTCH! standing by. CB Max Melton (hamstring) was limited all week, but should return. They are down starting DE Darius Robinson, which can’t hurt Indy.
• COLTS: They are down starting slot CB Kenny Moore again, a small bump for the Cards.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Colts are allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to the slot (+2.9), which is good for TREY MCBRIDE (58.2% slot rate), and they give up the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to the slot (+3.3) to TEs lined up split from the formation. They also give up the 12th-most receptions per game (5.4) and the 12th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to TEs in general (+1.2). That’s encouraging, since they really haven’t played any good TEs yet after facing the Raiders, Rams, Titans, Broncos, and Dolphins (before Darren Waller emerged).

• The Colts are 6.5-point favorites with a high implied total of 27.0, and JONATHAN TAYLOR sees a +38% boost to his fantasy points per snap while leading. The Cardinals are middling against the run, giving up the 15th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.83) and the 14th-fewest rushing YPG (80.6), but Tony Pollard had more success than usual running the ball against them last week with 14/67/1 rushing along with 3/11 receiving. Arizona also gives up the 11th-most receiving YPG (39.4) to RBs, and JT has 2+ catches in every game so far, so he’s looking more than fine as he dominates the Indy backfield in terms of snaps and opportunities.

• The Cardinals use Cover 4 at the NFL’s highest rate (27.0%), and TYLER WARREN ranks 4th in the NFL in YPRR against Cover 4 this season (3.96), having earned a team-high 35.7% target share against that shell. Meanwhile, Josh Downs (17.9% target share against Cover 4) and Michael Pittman (10.7%) see fewer looks against the shell. Daniel Jones has the 6th-lowest deep throw rate (7.1%) and a bottom-10 aDOT against Cover 4 (5.9), so this looks like a lot of underneath throws to Warren, since the Cardinals have allowed the 6th-most receiving YPG on throws within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage (106.0). The Cardinals are also allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to the slot (+3.3), and Warren inside 42.3% of the time. They give up the fifth-most receiving YPG (67.6) and the fourth-most receptions per game (6.8) to TEs, and low-end guys Chig Okonkwo (4/48 receiving) and Gunnar Helm (4/34) combined for 8/82 receiving in this matchup last week, so Warren should be locked into a 5/55 line at minimum here.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• Arizona allows the 12th-fewest YPRR (1.85) and the 16th-fewest YPR (13.27) to receivers aligned out wide, but they use Cover 3 (27%) and Cover 4 (27%) at a 54% clip, and ALEC PIERCE averages a weak 1.56 YPRR and a poor .16 TPRR on 32 routes against those coverages. Daniel Jones has the 6th-lowest deep throw rate (7.1%) and a bottom-10 aDOT against Cover 4 (5.9), so this looks like a dink-and-dunk week on paper.

THE REST:

• This matchup doesn’t look ideal for either Trey McBride or MARVIN HARRISON, but I’ll lean toward it being more of a McBride game (I said the opposite last week). You have to figure out which of the two will shine because the Cards can’t really support two receivers in a given game. It’s a middling matchup, as Indy gives up the 16th-most receiving YPG (103.2) and the 14th-fewest YPRR (1.88) to outside receivers aligned out wide, but he should see a lot of CB Mekhi Blackmon, who gives up a generous .30 FP/RR. If Kyler Murray can’t go or has issues, there’s probably not much of a drop-off to backup Jacoby Brissett.

• The Colts rank 31st in pressure (30.7%), and KYLER MURRAY’S YPA (5.91<6.18) and CPOE (2.6%<3.9%) actually dip from a clean pocket compared to when he’s pressured. Indy does give up the 12th-most passing YPG (234.8), but also the sixth-fewest rushing YPG (10.8) to QBs, and they handled Geno Smith last week with 0 TDs and 2 INTs last week. They should continue to throw it, at least, as they rank second in pass rate over expectation (7.8%).

• The Cardinals enter this week as 6.5-point road underdogs after being in a positive gamescript last week, so EMARI DEMERCADO could show exactly how annoying this backfield will be while playing more snaps in hurry-up situations. Indy gives up the 10th-fewest receiving YPG (26.4) to RBs, so he’s probably not worth trying out. MICHAEL CARTER is a solid receiver in his own right, and he had 5/22 receiving last week. Carter had a workable 50% snap share in the loss last week, so even with BAM KNIGHT around to steal a TD, Carter’s the only viable option. Indy gives up the fifth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.32), so he could have success on the ground.

• The Cardinals give up the sixth-most receiving YPG (87.2) and the seventh-fewest YPRR (1.46) to receivers aligned in the slot, but they use Cover 4 at the NFL’s highest rate (27.0%), JOSH DOWNS has a so-so 17.9% target share against Cover 4. However, they use Cover 3 (27%) and Cover 4 (27%) at a 54% rate, and Downs averages a strong 2.25 YPRR and .30 TPRR on 44 routes against those coverages, and the Cards have allowed the 6th-most receiving YPG on throws within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage (106.0) along with the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to the slot (+3.3), Downs’ out look this week is positive overall.

• The Cardinals use Cover 4 at the NFL’s highest rate (27.0%), and MICHAEL PITTMAN has only a 10.7% target share against the shell, which is explainable by the weaker 1.52 YPRR and .16 TPRR he averages on 61 routes against those coverages. The Cardinals give up the sixth-most receiving YPG (127.4) and the 11th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs (+2.4), but they’re the only team that hasn’t allowed a TD to an outside receiver. On the bright side, Calvin Ridley actually got it done 5/131 receiving in this matchup last week.

• The Cardinals give up the fifth-most passing YPG (266.6), and Sam Darnold posted a solid 242/1 passing in this matchup two weeks ago. It’s a slightly negative schematic matchup for DANIEL JONES, who is still playing well and by far career-bests in YPA (8.6) and passer rating (105.1) while leading the league with a low 2.6% sack rate. He may not go off, though, since he’s averaging by far a career-low 11.2 rushing YPG, and Arizona gives up the fifth-fewest rushing YPG (9.6) to QBs.

Looking BETTER than usual: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Trey McBride

Looking WORSE than usual: Alex Pierce

Reach plays: None of note.

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• SEAHAWKS: Starting CBs Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen are both doubtful, which is a huge break for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags.
• JAGUARS: They have a ton of guys who are limited and are questionable, but no one of note is in danger of missing the game.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Jaguars are the NFL’s most extreme pass funnel by PROE allowed (+6.8%), so it’s a great spot for JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, as the Jags are a perimeter funnel, having allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+10.6) but the 2nd-fewest to the slot (-6.8). They give up the most receiving YPG (147.4) and the 12th-most YPRR (2.10) to outside receivers. He’s still kicking ass with a league-leading 4.34 YPRR, and he’s third in first-read share (42.1%), and it’s also a good schematic matchup, since the Jags use Cover 3 (31.8%) and Cover 6 (23%) at 54.8% clip, and he averages an outstanding 2.85 YPRR and .30 TPRR on 46 routes against those coverages. Two other #1 types in Nico Collins (8/104/1 receiving) and Ja’Marr Chase (14/165/1) have crushed in this matchup already this year. Finally, they just swapped CBs with the Browns, so JSN will likely see a lot of Greg Newsome, who’s been beat a lot this year, and who just got the playbook days ago. JSN should go off here.

• The Jaguars give up the sixth-most passing YPG (260.4) and the 13th-most passing TDs per game (1.6) to QBs, and they’ve given up 300+ passing yards and multiple TDs in back-to-back games (Mahomes, Purdy). SAM DARNOLD is balling right now and ranks first in CPOE (11.2%) and highly accurate throw rate (64.2%), and he’s thrown for multiple TDs in three of his last four games. The Jag run defense is solid, and their offense is capable of taking advantage of Seattle’s CB injuries, so Darnold will likely throw a little more than usual this week.

• Seattle’s two TEs are a thing, and A.J. BARNER and rookie ELIJAH ARROYO are going to be involved each week. The problem is they can cancel each other out, but Barner has TDs in three of his last four with 23+ receiving yards in four straight. The Jags give up the 13th-most receiving YPG (52.0) and the 12th-most receptions per game (5.4) to TEs, and Travis Kelce (7/61/1 receiving) and Jake Tonges (3/58/1) each got it done in this matchup the last two weeks.

• The Seahawks’ defense ranks top-4 in usage of Cover 4 and Cover 6 (34.4%), and TRAVIS HUNTER leads the team in receptions (6) and has recorded nearly 3x the receiving yards (116) of any other Jaguars receiver against these two shells. He’s coming off his highest route participation rate since Week 1 (73.5%), and the Jags will miss Brenton Strange, who’s emerged as one of Trevor Lawrence's most reliable targets with 45 receiving yards on nearly five catches per game. The Seahawks are allowing the 8th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to the slot (+2.0), where Hunter has run 66.1% of his routes. They give up the ninth-most YPRR (1.83) and the fifth-most receiving YPG (88.0) to the slot, and even Sterling Shepard posted 4/24/1 receiving in this matchup last week. Things are lining up well with inside corner Devin Witherspoon (knee) doubtful to play, plus starting outside CB Riq Woolen is also doubtful. HC Liam Coen has been heaping praise on Hunter this week and promises to get the ball in his hands more in this one.

• Seattle gives up the ninth-fewest receiving YPG (90.8) and the seventh-fewest YPRR (1.69) to outside receivers, but starting CBs Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen are both doubtful, which is a break for BRIAN THOMAS, who is slowly heating up. Rookie Emeka Egbuka got this banged-up secondary for 7/163/1 receiving last week, and Seattle gives up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing LWRs (+5.3), and BTJ is at LWR over 40% of the time. That was mostly Woolen giving up production to that side, and BTJ will often see his backup Nehemiah Pritchett, who has been beatable.

THINGS TO FEAR: None of note.

THE REST:

• The Jags run defense has been spotty, and they give up the eighth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.18), so it’s a decent spot for KENNETH WALKER, who’s averaging 4.85 YPC and ranks fourth in YBCO/ATT (2.94). He keeps getting vultured by ZACH CHARBONNET, who beat Walker in snap share (57%>43%) and route share (47%>18%) with Walker leading in carry share (50%>45%) last week. It’s a nightmare, but a decent matchup and they are 1-point road favorites and the weaker Chiefs RBs combined for 15/89/2 rushing and 7/60 receiving in this matchup last week.

• The Jaguars are a perimeter funnel, having allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+10.6) but the 2nd-fewest to the slot (-6.8), which isn’t great for COOPER KUPP, who lines up inside 49.1% of the time. They give up the second-fewest YPRR (1.17) and the sixth-fewest receiving YPG (53.4) to slot receivers, but Kupp is outside half the time, and it’s a good schematic matchup, at least. They use Cover 3 (31.8%) and Cover 6 (23%) at a 54.8% clip, and he’s at a strong 2.15 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 46 routes against those coverages.

• The Seahawks allow the seventh-fewest adjusted BYC/ATT (1.50), the third-fewest rushing YPG (65.6), but TRAVIS ETIENNE ranks first in YBCO/ATT (3.29) and second in YPC (5.75) to open the season. He’s pacing BHAYSHUL TUTEN in snap share (61%>22%), carry share (46%>15%), and route share (38%>12%), and Seattle also gives up the second-most receiving YPG (58.4) to RBs, and they gave up 4/30 receiving and 2 TDs to Rachaad White last week.

• Seattle allows the seventh-most passing YPG (257.8) to QBs after Baker Mayfield got them for 379/2 passing and 5/15 rushing last week, and they also give up the 3rd-most most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs on the ground (+2.2), and TREVOR LAWRENCE broke out as a runner last week. With a higher total expected of 47.5, T-Law should be solid if he keeps running.

• The Seahawks are allowing the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+5.9), and HUNTER LONG had a strong 70.6% route share in the second half last week with Brenton Strange out of the lineup, if you’re desperate for a streamer.

Looking BETTER than usual: Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Sam Darnold, Travis Hunter

Looking WORSE than usual: None of note.

Reach plays: AJ Barner/Elijah Arroyo

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• CHARGERS: Quentin Johnston was limited all week (hamstring). They are down LT Joe Alt again and RT Trey Pipkins is also out, and the OL has been a big problem. They’re down a starting DE in Da'Shawn Hand.
• DOLPHINS: Starting ILB Tyrel Dodson is out and starting CB Storm Duck (ankle) is still questionable, which can’t hurt LA.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Dolphins allow the fourth-fewest receptions per game (9.8) and the third-fewest receiving YPG (113.6) to WRs, mostly because teams are running on them, and they have allowed the 4th-most receiving YPG on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (156.6), which in theory benefits Ladd McConkey (8.5 aDOT) and KEENAN ALLEN (7.9) over Quentin Johnston (12.3). Miami has blitzed at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (39.6%), and Allen leads the Chargers in target share (29.6%) and TPRR (0.33) against the blitz this year, constituting a +38% TPRR boost. Miami uses Cover 2 (29.3%) and Cover 3 (23.2%) at a 52.3% clip, and Allen leads the way with a strong 2.35 YPRR and .29 TPRR on 62 routes against those coverages, so it looks like an Allen game.

• The Dolphins have blitzed at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (39.6%), and Justin Herbert looked shell-shocked last week, so it would behoove them to run the ball and take some pressure off Herbert. This is a great week to do it, since Miami is the NFL’s 2nd-most extreme run funnel by PROE allowed (-4.5%), and they give up the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs on the ground (+3.8). The Dolphins also give up the 15th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (1.89), 5.6 YPC, and the second-most rushing YPG (133.6) to RBs. Their tackling is horrific, and last week they made Rico Dowdle look like an all-pro with 23/206/1 rushing and 3/28 receiving last week. HASSAN HASKINS played for HC Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, and he was the #2 over KIMANI VIDAL when Omarion Hampton was in the lineup, so I’m assuming he’ll get at least 10 carries in this one. He set a single-season program record with 20 rushing TDs back in 2021 (since broken by Blake Corum), so he’s probably a good bet to score.

• The Chargers give up the fourth-fewest YPRR (1.65) and the fourth-fewest receiving YPG (82.6) to outside receivers, but we show this as a positive schematic matchup for JAYLEN WADDLE, and lead guy Deebo Samuel got 8/96/1 receiving against the Chargers last week. Waddle is solid against the shells he’ll see, but they play Cover 4 25% of the time, and Waddle’s 1.14 YPPR against Cover 4 ranks 4th-best out of 124 qualifying receivers. He’s also “The Man” here with a 25% target share, a 35% first-read share, and a 46% air yards share last week.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Dolphins have allowed the 4th-most receiving YPG on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (156.6), which in theory benefits LADD MCCONKEY (8.5 aDOT), and Miami also blitzes at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (39.6%), and McConkey sees a +44% TPRR boost against the blitz. On the downside, Miami uses Cover 2 (29.3%) and Cover 3 (23.2%) at a 52.3% clip, and he averages a poor 1.00 YPRR and .13 TPRR on 77 routes against those coverages. They also give up the third-fewest receiving YPG (47.6) and the 15th-fewest YPRR (1.60) to receivers aligned in the slot, and he’s inside 62% of the time. Volume, or a lack thereof is probably the biggest issue for him in this one.

THE REST:

• The Chargers rank third in pass rate over expectation (7.1%), but that may slow down this week, since Miami is the NFL’s 2nd-most extreme run funnel by PROE allowed (-4.5%). That’s good news for JUSTIN HERBERT because the Dolphins have blitzed at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL (39.6%), and Herbert looked shell-shocked last week. This game has the third-lowest expected total remaining this week at 43.5, but they’ve given up multiple TDs to QBs in every game, and they also give up the fourth-most rushing YPG (32.8) to QBs with Josh Allen (213/3 passing and 4/25 rushing) and Drake Maye (230/2 and 10/31/1) producing the last two weeks.

• The Dolphins have allowed the 4th-most receiving YPG on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (156.6), which in theory is bad for QUENTIN JOHNSTON, who leads their wideouts in aDOT at 12.3). He does average a solid 1.85 YPRR and .19 TPRR on 79 routes against Cover 2 (29.3%) and Cover 3 (23.2%), which he’ll see more than 50% of the time, and Miami somehow gives up the sixth-fewest receiving YPG (85.0) and the 16th-most YPRR (2.02) to outside receivers. I’m not scared about the matchup, but I’m not encouraged by the overall situation this week.

• The Chargers are a top-5 pass funnel by PROE allowed (+4.6%), due to them giving up the 14th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.81), the 12th-fewest rushing YPG (79.6), and the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (24.4) to RBs, but they did get hit by Jacory Croskey-Merritt (14/111/2 rushing and 2/39 receiving) last week. DE’VON ACHANE is comfortably ahead of backup OLLIE GORDON in snap, carry, and route share, and they give up the 9th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs in the passing game (+1.8).

• LA gives up the 4th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs in the passing game only (-4.3), which is not great for TUA TAGOVAILOA, who is nearly useless with his legs. It’s not an ideal schematic matchup, since you prefer him against man-heavy teams and they play the fourth-most zone. His floor is decent with 2+ TDs in four straight games, at least.

• This is a real test for DARREN WALLER, since the Chargers give up the fourth-fewest receiving YPG (29.0) and the third-fewest receptions per game (3.2) to TEs. But Waller saw his route share rise from 37% to 65% in his second game last week, and he’s leading the position in FP (18.3) through his first two games. If he’s been a savior for you, or at least was last week, I don’t know how you sit him.

• The Chargers allow the 12th-most receiving YPG (69.8) and the 10th-most YPRR (1.82) to receivers aligned in the slot, and they use Cover 4 at the NFL’s 2nd-highest rate (23.3%). MALIK WASHINGTON is tied for the team lead in target share against Cover 4 this year (18.2%) and leads in TPRR (0.29), plus he saw two designed targets in Week 5. On the downside, he ran fewer routes than Darren Waller, got 0.0 yards on 4 catches last week, and Wan’Dale Robinson got only 3/14 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.

Looking BETTER than usual: Keenan Allen, Jaylen Waddle

Looking WORSE than usual: Darren Waller, Ladd McConkey

Reach plays: Hassan Haskins

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• PATRIOTS: Starting FS Jaylinn Hawkins is out, a small break for NO.
• SAINTS: Alvin Kamara (ankle) was limited all week, so I guess he will play or be active, due check that Sunday morning. They’re down a starting corner in Isaac Yiadom, a break for NE.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Patriots have been a top-6 pass-heavy offense by PROE (+5.5%), while the Saints’ defense has been a top-10 pass funnel by PROE allowed (+3.9%), so we should see some DRAKE MAYE passing in this one. The Saints rank only 25th in pressure rate (33.1%), and Maye’s YPA (8.52>7.53), passer rating (119.6>66.4), and CPOE (12.9%>2.7%) are better from a clean pocket compared to when he’s pressured. The Saints allow the 11th-fewest passing YPG (215.8), but they’ve allowed multiple passing TDs and 16.7+ FP to every QB they’ve faced and give up 2.2 passing TDs per game (3rd-most).

• The Saints are one of the weaker run defenses in the league and allow the 13th-most adjusted YBC/ATT (1.98) and the 12th-most rushing YPG (93.4) to RBs. They did a solid job on Cam Skattebo last week, but he still got 15/59 rushing and 6/45 receiving, and it would have been a little more were it not for a fumble. With Antonio Gibson on IR, that opens things up even more for TREVEYON HENDERSON, who was behind RHAMONDRE STEVENSON, who lost another fumble last week, in snap share (50%>48%) and carry share (32%>27%), while Henderson led in route share (47%>39%). Both guys are looking better than usual, but the Saints also give up the seventh-most receptions per game (5.2), so Henderson could finally pop.

• New Orleans allows the sixth-fewest receiving YPG (128.4) and the seventh-fewest receptions per game (10.2) to WRs, and they “held” Jaxon Smith-Njigba posted 5/96/1 receiving in this matchup in Week 3. We have STEFON DIGGS’ individual matchup as a top-15 one in terms of the matchup advantage, and the schematics look good, since they use the fifth-highest rate of Cover 3 (39.4%), and he crushes it with 3.49 YPRR and .27 TPRR on 37 routes against the coverage.

• The Saints allow the 11th-most receiving YPG (56.6) and the 11th-most receptions per game (5.6) to TEs, and they’re top-12 in their usage of zone coverage (around 75% of the time), and HUNTER HENRY is Mr. Zone beater. The Saints run the fifth-highest rate of Cover 3 (39.4%), and he averages an excellent 2.29 YPRR and .19 TPRR on 52 routes against the coverage. It’s also a so-so matchup for the annoying Austin Hooper and Theo Johnson got 6/33/2 receiving in this matchup last week.

• The Patriots rank top-7 in deep receiving YPG allowed on targets traveling 20+ yards downfield (54.6), and rank tied for the 2nd-most deep receptions allowed (10), and RASHID SHAHEED leads the Saints in target share in this area of the field (31.3%) and has accumulated over one-third (36%) of his fantasy points on such targets. The Patriots give up the eighth-most receiving YPG (119.8) and the fourth-most YPRR (2.34) to outside receivers, but those averages dip considerably with Christian Gonzalez the last two weeks. However, based on alignment numbers, Gonzalez should see more of Chris Olave (but it’s close). He’s hit 5+ targets and 4+ receptions in every game, and he’s been solid against man (NE uses Cover 1 at 28.2%) this year, ranking 24th out of 120 WRs with 0.64 FP/RR, so he could pop here.

• The Pats give up only the 15th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs on the ground (+0), but they also use Cover 1 at the ninth-highest rate (32.2%), and they give up the 4th-most FP/DB while in Cover 1. They really haven’t faced many running QBs until last week, and Josh Allen got them for 9/53 on the ground. SPENCER RATTLER has 4 or more rushing attempts in four of his five games, and over the last two weeks, he is taking off a lot more with 6/21 last week with an 11-yard run and 6/49 the week before with a 15-yard run. He is now dealing with Taysom Hill stealing reps at quarterback, but Taysom last week got only 6 carries for -1 yards. It’s a solid schematic matchup for him and Rashid Shaheed, and the Pats give up the eighth-most passing YPG (255.4).

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Patriots are tough to run on and give up the second-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.07) along with the second-fewest rushing YPG (64.2), and I don’t know how you can use ALVIN KAMARA with any confidence, since he’s got this mysterious ankle injury.

THE REST:

• The Patriots are a perimeter funnel, having allowed the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+6.3) but the 10th-fewest to the slot (-1.7), but CHRIS OLAVE (and Rashid Shaheed) have played outside relatively equally with Shaheed inside 5% more of the time. The Patriots use Cover 1 (28.2%) and Cover 3 (27.1%) at a 55.3% clip, and he averages a solid 1.76 YPRR and .31 TPRR on 87 routes against those coverages, but he will likely see the most of top corner Christian Gonzalez, so Olave may go another week without making a big play.

• The Patriots give up the second-most receiving YPG (75.0) and the 10th-most receptions per game (6.2) to TEs, and it’s a top-8 schedule-adjusted matchup (+2.5) for JUWAN JOHNSON and a decent schematic one, since they use Cover 1 (28.2%) and Cover 3 (27.1%) at a 55.3% clip, and he averages a decent 1.58 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 76 routes against those coverages.

• If Kamara is out or reported to be limited, KENDRE MILLER leads the league in missed tackles forced per attempt (.34), and he should get plenty of work with the Saints ranking last in pass rate over expectation (-4.4%). The Pats do also give up the 13th-most receiving YPG (34.8) to RBs, and he can catch the ball well.

Looking BETTER than usual: Rashid Shaheed, Hunter Henry, Stefon Diggs, Patriots RBs

Looking WORSE than usual: Alvin Kamara

Reach plays: Spencer Rattler, Kendre Miller

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• BROWNS: None of note.
• STEELERS: WR Calvin Austin is out, replaced by Ben Skowronek and Scotty “2 Hotty” Miller.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Browns are 4.5-point underdogs, which is not a big concern for QUINSHON JUDKINS, since the Browns one of the three most run-heavy teams in the NFL by PROE while trailing (-7.6%). He looks phenomenal, and 59.7% (5th-most) of his rush attempts have utilized man/gap concepts, on which he’s averaging 5.23 YPC (9th-best). The Steelers are strong against zone concepts, but they’re allowing 5.25 YPC (6th-most) and the 3rd-highest success rate (59.4%) to opposing man/gap concepts. They also give up the 11th-most rushing (95.3) to RBs, and they’re allowing the NFL’s 4th-highest explosive run rate (8.5%), and Judkins is 13th out of 110 qualifying RBs with 113 explosive rushing yards. He should rush for another 80+ yards with 100+ yards.

• The Steelers have allowed the 5th-most receiving YPG on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (155.5), which is a boost to both DAVID NJOKU (5.3 aDOT) and HAROLD FANNIN (5.6), and Pittsburgh gives up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs this year (+3.4). They give up the ninth-most receiving YPG (62.5) and 11.8 YPR to TEs, and Njoku had his highest route share (77.8%) since Week 1, and he had season-highs in first-read target share (28.6%) with his first end zone target of the season coming in rookie Dillon Gabriel in his first start. However, to complicate matters, the Steelers use the second-highest rate of single-high coverage (63.4%), and Njoku averages 1.03 YPRR and .18 TPRR on 90 routes against the look while Fannin averages a stronger 1.67 YPRR and .24 TPRR against the look. Fannin could steal the show, but he ran his lowest (47.2%) of the season last week, so things favor Njoku overall for now.

• The Browns deploy the highest rate of Cover 1 in the NFL (37.5%), and DK METCALF sees -22% reduction to his YPRR against Cover 1 since the start of last season, which is odd for him and off for any starting outside #1 WR. This could be a sign that he’s slowing down, but D.K. in years past has been a major man-beater, so I’m at least confident that he can hit his receiving prop over (only 52.5 yards). The Browns are still giving up the fifth-most schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs (+4.5 FP), and they also give up the third-most to opposing wideouts aligned on the left side of the formation, who see a +6.3 FPG bump against Cleveland. That’s interesting because they just traded the CB who lines up on that site (Greg Newsome), so now Metcalf will likely see a lot of Tyson Campbell, who started for the Jags last week. If D.K. is on CB Denzel Ward, that’s fine because Ward gives up a healthy .40 FP/RR, third-most on the board in Week 6. The Steelers will also have to lean on Aaron Rodgers and the pass this week against a stout Browns run defense.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Steelers have allowed the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+4.0), and they give up the second-most passing YPG (282.8) with QBs accounting for multiple TDs in every game against them However, Pittsburgh ranks fourth in blitz rate (37.3%), and DILLON GABRIEL averaged a terrible 3.08 YPA with a -18.2% CPOE on 12 attempts against the blitz last week. He showed some limitations throwing outside the numbers, and now he has to try to throw on CBs Darius Slay, Jalen Ramsey, and Joey Porter, so this could be a tough go.

• The Steelers deploy the second-highest rate of single-high coverage (63.4%), and JERRY JEUDY averages a terrible .86 YPRR and .18 TPRR on 109 routes against the look. Jeudy did get them for 6/85 and 5/64/1 receiving in two matchups against the Steelers last season, and they give up the third-most receiving YPG (178.8) to WRs with Justin Jefferson victimizing them for 10/126 receiving against them the last time out. But Jeudy had a weak debut with Dillon Gabriel, putting up 2/15 receiving on 5 targets (9%), so I’m not touching him with Darius Slay, Jalen Ramsey, and Joey Porter back there.

• It’s a nasty matchup on the ground, since Cleveland gives up the fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (.98), the fewest rushing YPG (62.4), and the fourth-fewest receiving YPG (17.2) to RBs. JAYLEN WARREN and KENNETH GAINWELL are going to have to split up about 60-70 rushing yards between them, and they don’t even give up 20 yards receiving per game to the position. Given the brutal matchup and lack of clarity after their last game, these two are desperation plays.

THE REST:

• The Steelers deploy the second-highest rate of single-high coverage (63.4%), and ISAIAH BOND averages a weaker 1.41 YPRR and .18 TPRR on 61 routes against the look. He got 7 targets (21%) and a 57% snap share in Week 5, so he’s not hopeless with Pittsburgh giving up the second-most receptions per game (14.3) to WRs.

• Cleveland gives up the fourth-fewest passing YPG (185.0) and they have held QBs to 14.7 or fewer FP in four of the first five games, so it’s not an ideal matchup for the immobile AARON RODGERS, who averages a terrible 4.18 YPA with a 93.4 passer rating and a -7.3% CPOE on 34 attempts against man, which they use at the fourth-highest rate of man coverage (40%). He’ll probably get 2 TD passes, though.

• The Browns give up the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to outside TEss (+3.4 FP), and I do like PAT FRIERMUTH to make an impact, but he’s a major reach with JONNU SMITH around.

Looking BETTER than usual: D.K. Metcalf, Quinshon Judkins, Browns TEs

Looking WORSE than usual: Jerry Jeudy, Steelers RBs

Reach plays: Pat Friermuth

Tennessee Titans at Las Vegas Raiders, 4:05 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• TITANS: They are getting RT JC Latham back, which is nice for them. They are down a starting OLB in Arden Key.
• RAIDERS: Brock Bowers is out again, but Michael Mayer is off the injury report at least.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Raiders give up the second-most receiving YPG (140.4) and the third-most YPR (15.26) to receivers aligned out wide, so it’s a good spot for CALVIN RIDLEY. They use Cover 3 at the highest rate in the NFL (51.9%), and Ridley sees a +13% boost to his TPRR against Cover 3 this year, while fellow wideout Elic Ayomanor sees a -19% TPRR reduction. The Raiders rank 23rd by time-to-throw adjusted pressure rate over expectation, and their average time to pressure at 2.66 seconds is the 4th-slowest in the league, which is big for Cam Ward, whose ANY/A falls from 5.64 when there’s no pressure to 0.07 on plays he’s been pressured, so he’s close to zero yards on average if he’s pressured. Last week was the first time Ward was pressured on fewer than 40% of his dropbacks — and Ridley balled out with 5/131 receiving on 9 targets (23%) and a 79% route share. His usage was more diverse, making him less reliant on big plays, and since the start of last season, Ridley’s YPRR increases by +150% when his QB is kept clean. The Raiders are 4.5-point favorites, so Ridley is going to have to produce if they want to earn a dub.

• Every TE who has run at least 15 routes against the Raiders this year has left the game with either 8+ targets (Hunter Henry, Cole Kmet) or a TD (Tyler Warren), and it’s a good schematic matchup for CHIG OKONKWO, who has 3+ receptions in four of his five games. Vegas uses the highest rate of Cover 3 (51.9%), and Okonkwo sees a +21% boost to his TPRR against Cover 3 this year, and he averages a strong 2.10 YPRR and .23 TPRR on 39 routes against the coverage. The one issue is that rookie Gunnar Helm is coming on.

• The Raiders are 4.5-point favorites, and ASHTON JEANTY ranks 2nd among all RBs in fantasy points per snap while leading this season (0.84), and it’s a great spot for volume against the hapless Titans. Tennessee is allowing the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs on the ground (+3.8), and they greatly miss their massive DT T'Vondre Sweat, who is still on IR. The Titans give up the second-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.77), which is huge for Jeanty, who has crushed two defenses that also give up a lot of YBC/ATT in Chicago (the most YBC/ATT at 3.02) and the Colts (5th-most at 2.06). Jeanty was at 4.8 and 6.6 YPC against those defenses after averaging 3.7, 3.9, and 2.0 YPC Weeks 1-3. They also give up the third-most rushing YPG (122.6), so Jeanty, who dominated backup Raheem Mostert in carry share last week 78%>6%, should produce again on the ground with 75+ rushing yards.

• The Titans deploy zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (80.3%), and JAKOBI MEYERS averages a strong 2.05 YPRR and .25 TPRR on 110 routes against zone. They use Cover 4 at a top-5 rate this year (22.5%), and Meyers see +36% TPRR boost against Cover 4. The Titans give up the 14th-most receiving YPG (68.2) and the eighth-most YPRR (1.83) to slot receivers. He’ll see a lot of CB Roger McCreary, who’s been getting worse as the season has progressed and gives up a fairly generous .30 FP/RR. Geno Smith has just a 6.6 aDOT against Cover 4 this year, so this could be a high catch game for Meyers.

• The Titans deploy zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (80.3%), and TRE TUCKER averages a strong 1.95 YPRR and .18 TPRR on 107 routes against zone. He also sees a +35% TPRR boost against Cover 4, which they deploy at a top-5 rate this year (22.5%), and he has a 50% air yardage share against the shell. The Titans give up the eighth-most YPRR (2.25) and the 14th-most receiving YPG (107.4) to outside receivers aligned out wide, and L'Jarius Sneed is beatable these days, so he’s start-worthy, but Geno Smith has just a 6.6 aDOT against Cover 4 this year, so we may not get a big play.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Titans give up the 15th-most passing YPG (231.0) and the ninth-fewest passing TDs per game (1.2) to QBs, but GENO SMITH has just a 6.6 aDOT against Cover 4 this year, which they deploy at a top-5 rate this year (22.5%), and he won’t have Brock Bowers again. He’s thrown multiple INTs in three of his first five games with the Raiders, so he could be sat for Kenny Pickett in the near future.

THE REST:

• The Raiders give up the third-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.31), the 10th-fewest rushing YPG (78.0), and the sixth-fewest receiving YPG (20.8) to RBs, so they are pretty stingy. And just when it looks like TONY POLLARD is heating up in the running game, we have TYJAE SPEARS in the mix. Still, until Spears does something, Pollard should be good for 15+ chances.

• The Raiders deploy the highest rate of Cover 3 (51.9%), and ELIC AYOMANOR averages 1.96 YPRR and .17 TPRR on 52 routes against the coverage, but he also sees a -19% TPRR reduction, so he gets fewer looks. LV gives up the fifth-most YPRR (2.32) and the second-most YPT (10.03) to outside receivers, but this does look like a Calvin Ridley game.

• CAM WARD’S ANY/A falls from 5.64 when there’s no pressure to just 0.07 on plays he’s been pressured, so he needs time. The Raiders rank low by time-to-throw adjusted pressure rate over expectation (23rd), and have an even slower average time to pressure at 2.66 seconds (4th-slowest), just like the Cardinals, who Ward threw for 265 yards (6.8 YPA) against. Vegas gives up the 14th-most passing YPG (233.8) to QBs, and the Colts called off the dogs last week, yet Daniel Jones got 212/2 passing in less than three quarters.

• The Titans give up the 7th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (-2.2), but they deploy zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (80.3%), which is ideal for MICHAEL MAYER, who will have to fill in for Brock Bowers. The Titans have allowed 37+ receiving yards to individual TEs in four straight games, and he could make it five.

Looking BETTER than usual: Calvin Ridley, Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers

Looking WORSE than usual: Geno Smith

Reach plays: Chig Okonkwo, Michael Mayer

Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• BENGALS: Ja'Marr Chase (illness) was added to the injury report on Friday, so check that status, but he’s expected to play.
• PACKERS: They are down starting DT Devonte Wyatt. They should get CB Nate Hobbs back.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Bengals are an underneath funnel, having allowed the most receiving YPG of any team on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (180.8), but by far the NFL’s fewest on the deep ball (10.6), which favors TUCKER KRAFT, who has a lot going for him otherwise. They use Cover 3 (34.2%) and Cover 1 (21.2%) at a 55.4% clip, and he averages an awesome 2.87 YPRR and .22 TPRR on 55 routes against those coverages. Cincy has allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+5.8) and a top-5 target share to opposing inline receivers (16.5%), where Kraft has run 56.7% of his routes from this year, and they give up the fourth-most receptions per game (6.8) and the fourth-most receiving YPG (69.0) to TEs.

• The Bengals have allowed the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs (+7.4), and the Packers have the highest implied total of the slate (29.25) and are 14.0-point favorites. Since he’s joined the Packers, JOSH JACOBS has seen a +47% boost to his fantasy points per snap while leading. Cincy gives up the sixth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.23), the fourth-most rushing YPG (122.6), and the seventh-most receiving YPG (45.0) to RBs, so it would be an upset if Jacobs didn’t total 100+ yards.

• The Bengals have allowed the 3rd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs (+5.1) with the fourth-most passing YPG (269.4) and the third-most passing TDs per game (2.2), so it’s a good spot for JORDAN LOVE. Cincy ranks 28th in pressure rate (31.1%), and Love’s YPA (10.5>4.74), passer rating (136.3>62.6), and CPOE (12.4%>-6.9%) are dramatically better from a clean pocket compared to when he’s pressured. They give up by far the NFL’s fewest on the deep ball (10.6), so Love will have to dink-and-dunk more, but Jared Goff just got them for 258/3 passing last week.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• You want TEE HIGGINS against man-heavy teams, and that’s not the Packers, who run zone 75% of the time (7th-most). They use Cover 3 (37.4%) and Cover 2 (21.3%) at a 58.3% clip, and Tee averages a terrible .59 YPRR and .11 TPRR on 74 routes against those coverages. He’ll see a lot of CB Keisean Nixon, who gives up a stingy 0.21 FP/RR.

• The Bengals allow the fewest receptions (2) on targets 20+ yards downfield, which is not ideal for MATTHEW GOLDEN, who has a 22% air yards share for Green Bay and a healthy aDOT. It’s not ideal schematically, either, as they use Cover 3 (34.2%) and Cover 1 (21.2%) at a 55.4% clip, and he averages a horrible .37 YPRR and .11 TPRR on 46 routes against those coverages. The Bengals just held deep threat Jameson Williams to a just a 9-yard reception in this matchup last week.

THE REST:

• It’s not a stellar schematic matchup for JA’MARR CHASE, as the Packers use Cover 3 (37.4%) and Cover 2 (21.3%) at a 58.3% clip, and he averages (a barely) decent 1.69 YPRR and .25 TPRR on 75 routes against those coverages. GB gives up the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (131.0) and the 10th-most receptions per game (12.8) to WRs, but George Pickens got them for 8/134/2 two weeks ago.

• Green Bay is going to be tough for CHASE BROWN to run on, since they give up the 12th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.77), the sixth-fewest rushing YPG (68.3), and to make matters worse, the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (24.8) to RBs. At least with Joe Flacco, you have to think Brown can haul in 5+ balls, since they are 14.0-point road underdogs.

• The Packers rank fifth in pressure rate (44.3%), and JOE FLACCO’S YPA (5.48>4.48), passer rating (78.5>31.5), and CPOE (1.5%>-2.9%) dip from a clean pocket compared to when he’s pressured, so this could get ugly quickly. Then again, Flacco led the Browns to a win against this defense this season, so he should know what to expect.

• He continues to pop in the schematic matchups, so ANDREI IOSIVAS is a viable longshot play.

• The Bengals are an underneath funnel, having allowed the most receiving YPG of any team on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (180.8), but by far the NFL’s fewest on the deep ball (10.6), which is not ideal for ROMEO DOUBS. On the bright side, he averages 2.92 YPRR and .24 TPRR on 51 routes against Cover 3 (34.2%) and Cover 1 (21.2%), which they run at a 55.4% clip. Of all their outside WRs, he’s the best one for the short game.

Looking BETTER than usual: Tucker Kraft, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love

Looking WORSE than usual: Matthew Golden

Reach plays: Romeo Doubs, Andrei Iosivas

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• 49ERS: WR Jauan Jennings (ankle, rib) was limited all week, but he has a shot to play, unlike Ricky Peasall (out), so Kendrick Bourne will play a lot again. Mac Jones (knee, oblique) is banged up but he’s more available than Brock Purdy (out).
• BUCCANEERS: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving are all out. They’re also down a starting CB in Zyon McCollum.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Buccaneers give up the 14th-fewest receiving YPG (138.8) and the 15th-most receptions per game (12.2) to WRs, and JAUAN JENNINGS got 7/93 receiving in this matchup last season. Jennings has been second on the 49ers in target share against the blitz this season (25.0%), seeing a +47% boost to his TPPRs compared to when there’s no blitz. Tampa gives up the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG given up to outside WRs (+3.9), so it’s a solid spot if you need him and can take on some injury risk.

• The Buccaneers allow the 2nd-most receiving YPG within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (166.0) but the 10th-fewest on the deep ball (32.8), which should help JAKE TONGES (4.3 aDOT). Tampa Bay just got hit for 19.7+ FP by A.J. Barner (7/53/2 receiving) and Dallas Goedert (4/37/2) the last two weeks and this is probably his last week filling in for George Kittle, and Mac Jones will need him. TB gives up the 11th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to in-line TEs (+3.3).

• This game is tied for the slate’s 2nd-highest over/under (47.5), and the Bucs are home and favored by 3, so it’s almost a pick ‘em game. But the last three weeks, Tampa’s games have totaled 56, 56, and 73 points, and they have lost to the Niners four straight times going back to 2019, so we should get a higher-scoring affair. The 49ers are giving up the ninth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.16), which is important for RACHAAD WHITE, and just as important, they give up the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs through the air (+2.9). Last week, Kyren Williams got them for 8/66/2 receiving on 10 targets. And in three games against the 49ers, White’s receiving has been featured with 5/21 (5 targets), 6/28 (7 targets), and 6/39/1 (7 targets). That last game was last season, and he got 16 FP in the passing game despite sharing the backfield with Bucky Irving.

• Against Cover 4 and Cover 6, Baker Mayfield averages a 27.8% deep throw rate (#1) and ranks top-3 in aDOT (10.4) along with top-10 in catchable throw rate (81.5%) and accuracy (64.8%) on these plays, that explain now EMEKA EGBUKA has an insane 5.81 YPRR against those two shells, ranking 2nd in the NFL behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He’s drawn a 29.6% target share against them, nearly double the next-closest player on his team (Chris Godwin, who is out, 15.8%). The 49ers deploy Cover 3 (34.6%) and Cover 4 (22.7%) at a 57.3% clip, and he averages 2.98 YPRR and .26 TPRR on 92 routes against those coverages, so he’s a must-play.

THINGS TO FEAR: None of note.

THE REST:

• The Buccaneers are allowing the 6th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (+3.9), and they have blitzed at a top-5 rate this season (37.0%), and CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (31.8%) leads the 49ers in target share against the blitz this season, seeing a +67% boost to his TPPR. The Buccaneers are an underneath funnel, having allowed the 2nd-most receiving YPG within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (166.0) but the 10th-fewest on the deep ball (32.8), which is an obvious boost to CMC (2.3 aDOT). He’ll need the receiving production, since the Bucs give up the fourth-fewest rushing YPG (67.6). They do give up the third-most receiving YPG (51.4) to RBs, and CMC posted 6/68 receiving in this matchup last season.

• The Buccaneers allow the 3rd-most schedule-adjust FPG to QBs in the passing game only so far (+4.1), which is ideal for the non-scrambling MAC JONES. Tampa gives up the 13th-most passing YPG (234.6) and the seventh-most passing TDs per game (2.0), and Sam Darnold ripped them for 341/4 passing last week, but Mac is also beat up with the knee/toe, so there is risk to using him. He does like the drama, but he usually goes, and he’s attempted 39+ passes in each of his three starts with 22.2+ FP put up twice.

• The 49ers do have TB’s number, and BAKER MAYFIELD got just 116/1 passing and 3/3 rushing in this matchup last season. But the 49ers deploy Cover 4 at a top-3 rate in the NFL (22.7%), and they have used Cover 4 or Cover 6 on 35.1% of their opponents’ dropbacks this year, the 2nd-most in the NFL, and Baker attacks these looks. He’s averaging a 27.8% deep throw rate (easily leads the league) and ranks top-3 in aDOT (10.4), and he ranks top-10 in catchable throw rate (81.5%) and accuracy (64.8%) on these plays. He also now leads all QBs in FP/DB against Cover 4 and 6 (0.76). The 49ers also just got hit by Matthew Stafford for 389/3 passing last week.

• It’s not an ideal schematic matchup for STERLING SHEPARD, and the 49ers are at bottom half in terms of schedule-adjusted FPG given up to the slot, but Baker is dealing, and no Chris Godwin means they’ll need him in a potential shootout.

• It’s not the greatest spot for CADE OTTON, but the Bucs give up the 13th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to TEs (+1.2), and we see a solid schematic matchup. They will need him again this week with Godwin out.

Looking BETTER than usual: Rachaad White, Emeka Egbuka

Looking WORSE than usual: None of note.

Reach plays: Mac Jones, Jake Tonges, Cade Otton

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, 8:20 p.m., Sun.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• LIONS: They’re down starting CB Terrion Arnold and slot CB Avonte Maddox. S Brian Branch (ankle) was a DNP all week along with S Kirby Joseph (knee), so they are shaky with stud CB DJ Reed is still on IR. They also won’t have LT Taylor Decker, not good.
• CHIEFS: None of note as even Xavier Worthy practiced fully late in the week and has no injury designation.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• AMON-RA ST. BROWN has now hit 7+ receptions and 70+ yards in four straight games while ranking sixth in A.S.S. (.184) and ninth in win rate (18.4%) among WRs who’ve run 75+ routes. Based on the coverages he’ll see, he’s got the 4th-highest expected FP/RR in Week 6 at Fantasy Points Data, since KC uses the third-highest rate of two-high coverage (62.4%), and he averages a fat 3.71 YPRR and .32 TPRR on 65 routes against the look. KC also plays the 13th-most man coverage at 27.5%, and ARSB averages 1.20 FP/RR against man this year, third most among 124 qualifying WRs. KC is giving up the 12th-most schedule-adjusted FGP to slot receivers (+1.7), and his individual matchup is outstanding, as CB Chamarri Conner gives up 0.37 FP/RR, third-most among 90+ CBs starting this week. They are 2.5 road underdogs in a game featuring the highest total on the board at 52.5, and their best 2 CBs Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed are out with safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph were DNPs two days to open the week, so he could be very busy.

• The Lions deploy the fifth-highest rate of man coverage (38%), and PATRICK MAHOMES averages a terrible 5.78 YPA with an 81.3 passer rating and -4.6% CPOE on 68 attempts against man. However, KC ranks first in the league in pass rate over expectation (10.6%), since they can’t run the ball, and Patty should be running in this one, since the Lions give up the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FGP to QBs on the ground only (+2.1). He’s currently averaging career-best rushing YPG mark by 13.7 YPG at 38.0. They’re depleted at CB and give up the seventh-most passing TDs per game (2.0) to QBs with QBs getting multiple passing TDs in 4-of-5 games.

• The Lions are a deep funnel, having allowed the 3rd-most deep receiving YPG (63.4) but the 2nd-fewest on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (86.6). TYQUAN THORNTON leads the NFL in deep targets per game (2.8). Detroit uses the fifth-highest rate of man coverage (38%), and Thornton averages a strong 2.33 YPRR and .25 TPRR on 48 routes against man, so he probably has a good chance to make a big play vs. a depleted secondary.

• He looked like he needed to be removed from the field in a stretcher last week, but apparently XAVIER WORTHY will play, and he has a shot with the Lions secondary depleted and down their two of their top-3 CBs in D.J. Reed and Terrion Arnold. He averages an excellent 2.88 YPRR and .29 TPRR on 24 routes against man, which they use at the fifth-highest rate, so he might be worth the risk this week.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• The Chiefs give up the sixth-fewest receiving YPG (30.4) and the fifth-fewest YPRR (2.08) on targets of 20+ air yards along with the 6th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to outside WRs (-4.7), so it does not look like a good spot for JAMESON WILLIAMS, who averages a poor 1.32 YPRR and .09 TPRR on 66 routes against two-high coverage, which they use at the third-highest rate (62.4%). Jammo’s sitting at just a 15.3% first-read share, but that may not go up this week, especially with the LT out.

THE REST:

• Detroit needs to lean on its running game, and KC gives up the fourth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.43), the 16th-most rushing YPG (86.6), and the 14th-most receiving YPG (32.6) to RBs, so it’s not a bad matchup for JAHMYR GIBBS and DAVID MONTGOMERY. KC did limit Travis Etienne (12/49 rushing and 3/9 receiving) and Derrick Henry (8/42 rushing and 2/16 receiving) the last two weeks, but this is a different animal. KC also gives up the 12th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs in the passing game.

• Kansas City gives up the fifth-fewest receiving YPG (32.8) and the fifth-fewest receptions per game (3.6) to TEs, and they give up the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FGP to TEs, which isn’t great for SAM LAPORTA. He is good against two-high coverage, which they use at the third-highest rate (62.4%), averaging 2.35 YPRR and .25 TPRR on 55 routes against the look. He should be active in a higher-scoring game, and with Jameson Williams struggling.

• The Chiefs lead the league in pressure rate (50%), and Jared Goff’s YPA (8.65>7.16), passer rating (138.1>65.2), and CPOE (12.1%>1.1%) fall from a clean pocket compared to when he’s pressured, which is a problem this week with LT Taylor Decker out. It’s a tough matchup on the outside, where KC gives up the 7th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to WRs (-4.7), and they give up the seventh-fewest passing YPG (199.8) and the fourth-fewest passing TDs per game (1.0) to QBs. The Lions will try to grind out a win with their rushing attack if possible.

• Detroit gives up the 12th-fewest receiving YPG (42.6) and the eighth-fewest receptions per game (4.2) to TEs, but Mark Andrews (6/91/2 receiving) did get them a few weeks ago. The Lions use the fifth-highest rate of man coverage (38%), and TRAVIS KELCE averages a decent 1.49 YPRR and .20 TPRR on 61 routes against man, plus Detroit’s two starting safeties are banged up, so Kelce looks okay here.

• The Lions use the fifth-highest rate of man coverage (38%), and HOLLYWOOD BROWN averages a poor 1.11 YPRR and .28 TPRR on 53 routes against man, which is about 50% less than Tyquan Thornton. The good news is the Lions are down their top-3 CBs and their two starting safeties are iffy. He’s yet to hit 50 yards, but he’s been between 30 and 48 receiving yards in four straight.

Looking BETTER than usual: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Patrick Mahomes

Looking WORSE than usual: Jameson Williams

Reach plays: Tyquan Thornton

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons, 7:15 p.m., Mon.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• BILLS: LB Matt Milano is out, a break for the Falcons.
• FALCONS: WR Darnell Mooney is out, and they have no one of note to replace him. They do get CB A.J. Terrell back, though.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• The Falcons give up the sixth-fewest YPRR (1.45) and the eighth-fewest receiving YPG (55.5) and the 12th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to slot receivers (-1.1), but they are zone-heavy, and you want KHALIL SHAKIR against zone. They use the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (44.4%), and he averages an excellent 2.97 YPRR and .28 TPRR on 29 routes against the coverage. This looks like the typical solid Shakir day with 5-6 catches for 50-60 yards.

• If the Falcons have any chance, it’ll be with BIJAN ROBINSON, since the Bills have been quite bad against the run. They give up the third-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.65), the ninth-most rushing YPG (98.8), and the third-fewest receiving YPG (16.6) to RBs, so he should be fed 25+ touches in this one with the Falcons ranking 31st in pass rate over expectation (-4.3%) for a reason (Penix stinks).

THINGS TO FEAR:

• Atlanta allows the third-fewest receiving YPG (80.0) and the third-fewest YPRR (1.62) to outside receivers, and you don’t like KEON COLEMAN against zone-heavy teams in general. He does average a solid 1.97 YPRR and .20 TPRR on 30 routes against Cover 3, which they use at the second-highest rate (44.4%), but overall we show a 16% decline to his FP/RR based on the coverages the Falcons run. He should also see a lot of CB A.J. Terrell, who gives up a stingy 0.11 FP/RR.

• With Darnell Mooney out, I don’t trust MICHAEL PENIX in this tougher matchup, as the Bills give up the second-fewest passing YPG (167.4) and the seventh-fewest passing TDs per game (1.2) to QBs. They have not allowed more than 13.9 FP to QBs in the last four weeks and over the last five weeks give up the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to QBs in the passing game only (-5.7), which is Penix’s focus, as he’s run for just 31 yards through four weeks

THE REST:

• It’s a trickier matchup for JAMES COOK, since the Falcons give up the 10th-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.65), the 11th-fewest rushing YPG (79.5), and the fewest receiving YPG (9.8) to RBs. But they also give up the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs in the running game only (+3.3), which is Cook’s deal (running the ball) more than anything.

• It’s a decent schematic matchup for JOSH ALLEN, and while the Falcons give up the fewest passing YPG (150.5), they haven’t really been tested, and they the allow the the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to QBs in the running game (+1.6) and the 13th-most rushing YPG (22.8) to the position. The Falcons also rank third in blitz rate (39.5%), and Allen’s beating the blitz at times with his YPA (7.86<8.34) improving against it. Overall, it’s a tough matchup to evaluate, and you’re using him no matter what in SL leagues.

• He’s a bit banged up ( oblique), so riskier, and Atlanta allows the fewest receptions per game (2.0) and the receiving YPG (17.3) to TEs, but DALTON KINCAID averages a fat 3.78 YPRR and .30 TPRR on 27 routes against Cover 3, which the Falcons deploy the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (44.4%), so he’s a good bet to make a play or two.

• Atlanta allows the third-fewest receiving YPG (80.0) and the third-fewest YPRR (1.62) to outside receivers, and like Keon Coleman, I don’t like JOSH PALMER against a zone-heavy defense. He’ll at least often get the better matchup than Coleman against CB Mike Hughes (.30 FP/RR).

• The Bills use two-high safeties at the fourth-highest rate (61%), and DRAKE LONDON averages a strong 2.54 YPRR and .31 TPRR on 61 routes against the shell. The Bills give up the 10th-fewest receiving YPG (91.4) and the 13th-most YPRR (2.06) to outside receivers, and he’ll be busy with Darnell Mooney out and he ranks fourth in first-read share (38.2%) and seventh in target share (28%). The Bills are tough on the outside, though, and they give up the 9th-most schedule-adjusted FGP to outside WRs, so I don’t see him going off with the QB likely struggling.

• The Bills give up the second-fewest receiving YPG (22.6) and the second-fewest receptions per game (22.6) to TEs, but we show this as a slightly positive schematic matchup for KYLE PITTS, who has reached 4+ receptions and 37+ receiving yards in every game. The Bills deploy two-high safeties at the fourth-highest rate (61%), and he averages a decent 1.58 YPRR and .16 TPRR on 64 routes against the shell and he should see an extra look or two with Darnell Mooney out.

Looking BETTER than usual: Khalil Shakir, Bijan Robinson

Looking WORSE than usual: Keon Coleman

Reach plays: Kyle Pitts

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders, 8:15 p.m., Mon.

FANTASY INJURIES:

• BEARS: They won’t have DT Grady Jarrett, a small break for DC.
• COMMANDERS: WRs Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown have been ruled out, so Luke McCaffrey will see more snaps and looks.

THING TO EXPLOIT:

• You want to use ROME ODUNZE against man-heavy defenses, and DC uses Cover 1 (26.5%) and Cover 3 (26%) at a 52.5% clip, and he averages 2.50 YPRR and .30 TPRR on 74 routes against those coverages. He’ll see a lot of CB Trey Amos, who gives up a stingy 0.13, but he’s hit 7+ targets and 15.2+ FP in four straight and this is a good spot overall.

• With no Terry McLaurin again along with Noah Brown out, it’s DEEBO SAMUEL time again, and the Bears give up the seventh-most YPRR (1.84) and the 15th-fewest receiving YPG (65.8) to receivers aligned in the slot along with the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+2.9) to inside receivers. It’s also a good schematic matchup, since they use the second-highest rate of two-high coverage (62.6%), and Deebo averages 2.58 YPRR and .33 TPRR on 55 routes against the look.

• It’s a great matchup for JACORY CROSKEY-MERRITT, since the Bears give up the most adjusted YBC/ATT (3.09), 6.0 YPC, and the most rushing YPG (140.8), and JCM is leading the league in YPC (6.58), and ranks second in YBCO/ATT (3.09) and third in YACO/ATT (3.49). Ashton Jeanty crushed them for 21/138/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, and BILL has 2 receptions in back-to-back games while leading Jeremy McNichols in route share (37%>33%), so he’s taking over.

• With WRs Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown out, DC needs ZACH ERTZ this week, and it’s an excellent spot. Chicago uses the second-highest rate of two-high coverage (62.6%), and Ertz averages an excellent 2.26 YPRR and .26 TPRR on 46 routes against the look. The Bears also give up the second-most receptions per game (7.3) but just 7.1 YPR to TEs, and Ertz got 7/77 receiving in this matchup last season, so he’s a major sleeper here.

• The Bears allow the second-most passing TDs (2.5) and the 14th-fewest passing YPG (221.5) to QBs, and JAYDEN DANIELS got 326/1 passing and 9/47 rushing in this matchup last season, and Chicago ranks 27th in pressure rate (31.7%), and Daniels’ YPA (7.12>5.97), passer rating (94.5>90.2), and CPOE (3.7%>-7.4%) are much better from clean pocket compared to when he’s pressured. I like him throwing to Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz in a potential shootout, so he should be more than fine.

THINGS TO FEAR:

• DC gives up the fifth-most YPR (14.7) to receivers aligned out wide, but they use Cover 1 (26.5%) and Cover 3 (26%) at a 52.5% clip, and D.J. MOORE averages a terrible .49 YPRR and .10 TPRR on 72 routes against those coverages. He’ll also see a lot of Marshawn Lattimore, and he got only 2/27 receiving in this matchup last season against the same scheme.

THE REST:

• We show this as a solid schematic matchup for CALEB WILLIAMS, as DC uses Cover 1 33.3% of the time, and he’s 10th in FP/DB against the shell. The Commanders allow the ninth-most passing YPG (254.4) and the ninth-most rushing YPG (26.8) to QBs. On the downside, DC ranks third in pressure rate (45.9%), and Williams’ YPA (8.32>4.14), passer rating (110.2>66.6), and CPOE (6.1%>-8.9%) have been significantly worse against pressure compared to a clean pocket. At least he’s a good bet to run when pressured, and he should be motivated to show well playing in his hometown.

• D’ANDRE SWIFT continues to have nothing behind him at the position, so he’s looking solid in a tougher spot here. DC gives up the fifth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.40), the 13th-fewest rushing YPG (79.8) to RBs, but Swift got them for 18/129/1 rushing without a catch in this matchup last season. They give up the 12th-most receiving YPG (37.8), and he has 3 receptions in each game this year, so he’s looking at 15-20 touches again.

• The Commanders give up the sixth-most receiving YPG (65.4) and a whopping 14.9 YPR to TEs, but COLSTON LOVELAND has just 3/43 receiving on 6 targets (6%) and a 38% route share in his first three games, and he’s still on the injury report with his hip. Perhaps COLE KMET is the better reach play for now.

Looking BETTER than usual: Rome Odunze, Zach Ertz, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Deebo Samuel, D’Andre Swift

Looking WORSE than usual: D.J. Moore

Reach plays: Cole Kmet