Statistically Significant: Scrambles and QB Runs

A designed run play is simply one on which the team intends for the QB (or, in most cases, an RB) to run the ball before the snap. In contrast, a scramble is a play in which the QB first drops back to pass, but then opts to leave the pocket and run the ball himself (whether due to pressure or a lack of open receivers).

Whether we categorize a rush attempt as a scramble or a designed play, the most important takeaway is that rushing is unbelievably important for QBs in fantasy football. Glancing down the list below, each of the top-9 most predictive QB stats measures rushing in whole or in part. We don’t come to a pure passing metric until the 10th stat down the list (Passing TDs).

This is far from a novel observation. Rich Hribar first unveiled this “Konami Code” years ago, and the market has essentially caught up (leading me to theorize a new optimal QB strategy). But it’s always worth a reminder to vacuum up hyper-mobile QBs on the few remaining occasions they aren’t appropriately priced.

I experimented with removing kneel-downs from the designed attempt-related stats above, as these are often more a signal that a QB’s team is winning games than of an intention to run the ball with him. Designed attempts, minus kneels, boasted a 0.489 correlation coefficient, which is still slightly more predictive than scrambles. (Kneels are removed from every subsequent “designed runs” stat in this article).

A similar phenomenon also occurred when I removed Jalen Hurts from the dataset to mitigate the impact of the “tush push.” With this added context, I’m comfortable saying designed runs and scrambles are roughly equally important and predictive.

Whatever the case, let’s take a closer look at how scrambling and/or designed rushing could impact the fantasy fortunes of a few non-obvious QBs in 2025. It’s already clear to everyone and to the market that Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Fields (as long as he starts) are going to run a lot and score tons of fantasy points in 2025; I’m more interested in analyzing the edge cases.

Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

Underdog ADP: QB16

Maye’s 31.3 scramble YPG ranks 5th-best among all QBs in Fantasy Points Data history, or 2nd-best among rookies behind only Jayden Daniels. That increases further to 35.2 scramble YPG across his nine full games, beating out Daniels and ranking behind only Justin Fields (2022) in the Fantasy Points Data era.

So you might also be surprised to learn that the Patriots designed fewer run plays for Maye than the Saints did for Derek Carr last year.

Scramble yards have a 0.61 correlation coefficient to designed rush attempts in the following season. In other words, very productive scramblers like Maye generally also see a lot of designed work on the ground in the following season. That’s less predictive than (non-kneel) designed attempts are of themselves (0.88), but we have some good reason to believe Maye would have seen designed attempts as a rookie in better circumstances. The Patriots seemed to intentionally hold back on drawing up run plays for Maye in a lost rookie season with a dreadful offensive line.

To consider all angles, I think it’s worth asking whether Maye’s scrambling might decline after this offseason’s supporting cast upgrades. If a scramble is a last resort after failing to find an open receiver or after being chased out of the pocket, could Maye’s better situation work against his fantasy output in this area?

I don’t think we need to worry. Since 2021, scrambles are only slightly correlated with a QB’s pressure rate (0.357). Less pressure might cause fewer scrambles to a degree, but for the most part, great scrambling QBs do so a lot regardless of how often they feel the heat. For example, Bo Nix (2.9 scrambles per game) and Jayden Daniels (4.2) scrambled at comparable frequency to Maye (3.5) despite the 5th-lowest and 16th-lowest pressure rates in 2024.

Maye still doesn’t have the best supporting cast, the most aggressive play caller, or a defense so suspect that we should expect him to be forced into playing hero ball every week. However, as I mentioned at the beginning of this article, we should always be willing to take a shot on the rare hyper-mobile “Konami” QB who isn’t priced as a QB1. Maye has proven such an effective runner that the team would be insane not to utilize him more in that way.

Maye’s rushing ceiling is higher than all of the remaining QBs in this article. There are reasons to draft safer and more easily stackable QBs in best ball tournaments, but when managed redraft season rolls around, I’ll easily prefer him at cost (if his QB16 Underdog ADP is anything to go by) to anyone else listed here.

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos

Underdog ADP: QB10

Nix reportedly suffered multiple back fractures early in the Broncos’ Week 12 game against the Raiders and was also significantly limited in the following game before the team’s bye. Removing these two injured weeks, Nix averaged 28.1 rushing YPG (would have ranked 9th-most) on 5.9 rush attempts per game (8th-most). Nix’s 19.7 FPG over this span would’ve landed him inside the top-8 at the QB position.

But that’s probably understating the impact Nix’s injury had, as nearly all of his post-Week 12 production came through the air or on scrambles. All but one of his designed carries after that point were QB sneaks. In contrast, he’d averaged 1.8 FPG on designed carries alone before the injury (though a large portion of that was also from a pair of QB sneak TDs).

Unlike with Drake Maye, I wouldn’t necessarily expect Nix to see a lot more designed runs in 2025. Sean Payton has probably determined it’s not worth the injury risk, especially as Nix averaged just 3.33 YPC (3rd-lowest of 10 qualifying QBs) on these plays. Nix can certainly make up the difference with scrambling and his arm; he still averaged 23.5 FPG (~QB2) in his final four healthy games, with only 0.25 FPG coming from designed runs. On the off-chance Nix’s designed rushing returns, he could easily threaten for top-6 status at the position.

Rushing aside, it’s incredibly impressive that Nix averaged 0.51 fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB) with one of the worst backfields in the NFL and no receivers (aside from Courtland Sutton) deemed worthy of running a 75% route share during any single game all season. In this highly predictive metric, Nix ranked 10th-best among all qualifying QBs and 4th-best among rookies over the past three seasons (behind only Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy, and C.J. Stroud).

With the additions of RJ Harvey and Evan Engram giving Sean Payton a new pair of chess pieces in the short and intermediate game, I’d be unsurprised to see Nix improve on his efficiency and post yet another mid-to-low-end QB1 season. Virtually every QB Payton has ever had his hands on has produced in fantasy football.

Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears

Underdog ADP: QB9

None of Williams’ rookie efficiency metrics — whether his 0.39 FP/DB (6th-worst) or his 30.0% pressure-to-sack ratio (2nd-worst) — inspire much confidence. However, I’m willing to largely give a former number 1 overall pick a pass from a real-life perspective.

After all, Trevor Lawrence (0.33 FP/DB) and Bryce Young (0.28 FP/DB) were even more dreadfully inefficient as rookies. I’d put the 2024 Bears’ organizational dysfunction somewhere on the Urban Meyer scale, while Williams’ interim OC/HC/play-caller Thomas Brown also happened to have a hand in Bryce Young’s historically terrible rookie season. And I haven’t even brought up original Bears OC Shane Waldron yet, whose former players openly struggle to say a single nice thing about his offense.

In other words, the Bears’ offense is going to look entirely different under new HC Ben Johnson, who ranks 2nd-best in YPA (7.89) and 3rd-best in passing YPG (270.0) since he took over as the Lions’ OC in 2022. This offseason, the Bears have completely rebuilt their offensive line, drafted multiple pass-catchers with top-40 picks, and committed to building an offense around Williams’ strengths (below). There isn’t much more a second-year QB could ask for.

However, I am somewhat concerned that Williams’ rushing numbers were inflated in 2024, which may be contributing to the market overstating his upside as the Underdog QB9. Like Maye and Nix, most of Williams’ rushing production came on scrambles, averaging fewer than 2.0 designed rush attempts per game. But unlike Maye and Nix, Williams’ opportunities to scramble are likely about to take a hit.

Williams amassed the 2nd-most dropbacks in the NFL last year (680), behind only Joe Burrow. Definitionally, to amass rushing yards on a scramble (unlike with a designed run), a QB must first drop back to pass. Williams scrambled a lot in total last year, but on a per-dropback basis, he ranked behind players like Bryce Young and Brock Purdy.

In other words, if the Bears’ dropback volume declines, Williams’ scrambles (and therefore his total rush attempts) likely will too. Under Johnson, the Lions ranked outside the top-20 in pass rate over expectation (PROE) each of the past two seasons. That means they’ve run the ball much more often than teams elect to on average, controlling for game script and situation.

Of course, the Lions had one of the best RB duos in the NFL over this stretch, and I’d expect Williams to drop back more than Jared Goff did. But it still feels as if you’re paying for both Williams’ likely improvement as a passer and more rushing upside than he’s likely to have in a halfway-functional and balanced offense. And remembering that Williams scrambled even less before Thomas Brown took over (6.5% under Waldron), my mind can’t get off the idea that Johnson might try to rein in that part of his game and run a more structured system.

This all said, Williams’ QB9 Underdog ADP isn’t so prohibitive as to prevent me from stacking the Bears; I want pieces of this offense. But I’ll probably still be fading him in favor of Maye in managed leagues this August, where stacking is less important and downside at QB matters less.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Underdog ADP: QB8

Since his 2022 ACL tear, Murray has averaged just 2.2 designed rush attempts per game. And this fell from 3.0 in 2023 to 1.8 last season — even two seasons removed from the injury, his rushing usage is headed in the wrong direction.

This seems more like a coaching decision than a reflection of Murray being washed up or physically limited. Murray himself wants to run more in 2025 and now feels like his knee injury “never happened.” But per CoachSpeak Index, HC Jonathan Gannon gave a total non-answer at the NFL Combine when asked whether it was fluky that Murray hit a career-low 4.6 rush attempts per game last year, remarking, “I like when he extends and throws it down the field over people’s heads. But there’s no doubt he has that element (running) to his game. And when he uses it, if he uses it at the appropriate time, he can kill you.”

Maybe I’m reading into these comments too much, but I get the feeling that this coaching staff doesn’t have much interest in putting Murray in harm’s way with designed rushing. Murray has been scrambling a bit more frequently over the past couple of years (possibly to Gannon’s anxiety). But it hasn’t made up for the decline in designed work, nor has it kept him anywhere near the top of an increasingly mobile league.

At the risk of repeating myself, I see Murray and his QB8 Underdog ADP as a significantly more expensive version of Drake Maye. They’re both likely to scramble a lot, while we’re left guessing on their level of designed rushing. Most simply, Maye averaged 18.7 FPG (with no starting-level receivers) in his full games as a rookie compared to Murray’s 18.4 FPG last season. I’m taking the cheaper option (Maye) every time.

Daniel Jones, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Underdog ADP: QB33

Jones has been an underrated rushing threat for much of his career. His 9.5% scramble rates in each of his two seasons before his 2023 ACL tear would have ranked behind only Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye last season. Although his injury led to fewer scrambles in 2024, he still ranked fourth-best in designed rush attempts per game (4.4), and was not far behind his new teammate, Anthony Richardson (5.2).

If Jones scrambles more now two years removed from the ACL injury, and HC Shane Steichen more-or-less plugs and plays him into the Colts’ designed QB run-heavy offense (the likely intention behind signing Jones rather than running it back with an immobile Joe Flacco), then it wouldn’t be a total shock to see him approach the 17.6 FPG (~QB13) he averaged in his healthy games across 2022 and 2023. Remember, Steichen has a remarkably impressive track record of getting fantasy production out of the QB position.

But for any of that to happen, Jones first needs to see the field. Every indication is that the Colts are having a truly open competition for the QB1 job this summer. However, Michael Pittman has notably already worked out with Jones but not with Anthony Richardson this offseason. Given that comment, reports that Colts players spoke with Richardson about his work ethic last season, and his accuracy woes, I’m left believing that if the Colts’ receivers aren’t already secretly rooting for Jones to win the job, they will be soon enough.

Even if Jones is a bit worse than a coin flip to start in Week 1, it seems a near-certainty he’ll start at some point this year, given Richardson’s extensive injury history and this organization’s recent history of benching their QB at the first sign of trouble. That makes Jones a genuinely intriguing flyer available in the final round of large-field Underdog tournament drafts, or even more so as the QB37 off the board in dynasty startups for rosters needing cheap Superflex production this year.