Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: Week 3. I’m a senior writer and owner at Fantasy Points who specializes in betting and fantasy analysis. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread and player prop bets every week through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly up to kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
Initial spread picks will be posted around 9 a.m. Mondays. Join our “#official-bets” Fantasy Points Discord to see our staff's wagers as soon as we make them! Also, be sure to check out Justin Varnes’ weekly IDP Prop Bets and our entire staff’s Best Bets!
PLAYER PROPS
2025 Player Props Record: 27-15 (64.3%, +9.28 units); Week 3: 7-6 (+.27 units)
All wagers with negative odds are to win one unit, and all wagers with positive odds are one-unit bets.
Thursday Night
Dalton Kincaid (Buf) over 29.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) (W)
- FP Projection: 39.3 yards, 37+ yards in first two games, ranks fourth in A.S.S. (.089) at the position through two weeks, MIA has allowed 7/76 receiving to Tyler Warren and 3/38 receiving to Austin Hooper, MIA allowing 8.9 YPT and 11.9 YPR to TEs, Kincaid posted 4/33 and 4/32 against MIA last season. Bet to 32.5 yards. Placed at 7:37 a.m. on Sept. 17.
