Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: Week 2. I’m a senior writer and owner at Fantasy Points who specializes in betting and fantasy analysis. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread and player prop bets every week through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly up to kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
Initial spread picks will be posted around 9 a.m. Mondays. Join our “#official-bets” Fantasy Points Discord to see our staff's wagers as soon as we make them! Also, be sure to check out Justin Varnes’ weekly IDP Prop Bets and our entire staff’s Best Bets!
PLAYER PROPS
2025 Player Props Record: 19-9 (+9.01 units); Week 2: 8-6 (+1.3 units)
All wagers with negative odds are to win one unit, and all wagers with positive odds are one-unit bets.
Thursday Night
Zach Ertz (Was) over 30.5 receiving yards (-108, DraftKings) (W)
- FP Projection: 39.1 yards, 70% route share in Week 1, GB allowed the eighth-most receiving YPG (57.1) to TEs last season, Sam LaPorta posted 6/79 receiving in this matchup last week, Green Bay deployed Cover 3 or Cover 2 74.4% of the time last week, Ertz averaged 1.74 YPRR on 172 routes against those coverages last season, Ertz led WAS in receiving yards (296), target share (22.6%), and YPRR (2.33) when they trailed in the second half of games last season, WAS enters as 3.5-point road underdogs. Bet to 33.5 yards
