Underdog Best Ball ADP Changes: June 2025

With Underdog best ball ADPs fluctuating daily, I wanted to evaluate several players rising or falling down draft boards, and determine if they warrant investment at their new cost.

As always, our Fantasy Points best ball rankings are downloadable and exportable to multiple major best ball platforms!

Risers

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Ind)

Underdog ADP: 97.1 (WR53)

One Week Change: 3.10 ADP Rise

Michael Pittman’s ADP is on the rise, and it’s hard to understand what Underdog drafters see in a player who finished as the WR43 with 8.3 FPG in 2024. A lower back fracture that began affecting Pittman in the preseason may have been to blame, but his recent injury issues have kept the door open for someone to usurp his WR1 role.

Last season, we saw Alec Pierce outpace Pittman in total receiving yards while Josh Downs edged him out in total receptions, and both would outscore him in FPG. From an efficiency standpoint, Downs was far more effective than Pittman in several fantasy-relevant categories.

Downs has an elite ability to get open, and his 0.30 TPRR would rank 4th-best in the league. Any increase in his route share would have a positive impact on his fantasy production.

On the other hand, Pittman struggled to separate last season, evident in his 62nd-ranked Average Separation Score (0.064) and his 74th-ranked Route Win Rate (11.8%). With reports that the QB battle between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones has become increasingly one-sided (in favor of Jones), I wanted to examine how these two receivers performed with Richardson out of the equation last season.

Without Richardson at QB in 2024

There’s no other way to put it; Richardson is a fantasy black hole who suffocates the potential upside of nearly every one of his WRs. He’s been the most ineffective passer since entering the league while also generating the lowest FPG for his receivers. I am increasingly optimistic about the connection Jones can establish with Downs specifically; Downs' career aDOT (7.1 yards) pairs nicely with Jones’ over the last two seasons (7.2 yards). The disparity between the two QBs is even more apparent when comparing Jones to Richardson on throws 1-9 yards downfield (where Downs does most of his damage).

Throws of 1-9 Yards in 2024

Downs is poised for a breakout in year three, with Jones projected to be the new starting quarterback. Where does that leave Pittman? A fringe WR2 in an increasingly crowded receiving room ^[1] where he is no longer the most talented player. I had no interest in Pittman before his rise in ADP (WR53) and will look to invest in Downs at a price that is only a hair higher (WR48).

Jauan Jennings (WR, SF)

Underdog ADP: 64.2 (WR36)

One Week Change: 1.40 ADP Rise

Jauan Jennings’ ADP is starting to rise as the depleted 49ers' WR room struggles to return to health. Underdog drafters are selecting Jennings as the WR36 despite the likelihood he’s in line for a bigger role in 2025 after a WR25 finish last season.

The jury is still out on whether Jennings’ fourth-year breakout was an outlier or a predictor of continued production. I believe that the following notable finishes last season serve as an indication that Jennings’ top-25 finish wasn’t an anomaly. Jennings ranked top-10 in the following predictive metrics: YPRR (2.47), 1D/RR (0.119), Route Win Rate (19.5%), and Threat Rate (31.6%) ^[2]. His marks in games where he saw at least a 75.0% route share were even more impressive:

Games with at least 75.0% route participation

Over a full season, those per-game averages would have ranked 8th-best, 7th-best, 7th-best, and 2nd-best, respectively ^[3]. With Deebo Samuel now in Washington and Brandon Aiyuk likely to miss the start of the 2025 season, Jennings is set up for a high-usage role. The lone WR threat to Jennings’ volume is second-year receiver Ricky Pearsall (possibly of little concern). This is the same “threat” who sat out training camp last year, missed the first six games of the season, and continues to experience an injury-riddled start to his career.

Now that we’ve established the relatively safe fantasy floor Jennings has, I want to shift our focus to his potential high-tier ceiling, in what I expect to be a bounce-back year for the 49ers offense. Arguably, no team suffered a bigger loss of offensive output due to injuries than the 49ers in 2024 ^[4]. When healthy, they have one of the most explosive offenses in the league, behind a strong O-line, and commanded by a QB who recently led the league in passer rating (Brock Purdy recorded a 113.0 passer rating in 2023).

Jennings stands to benefit immensely from a 49ers offense returning to the highs they achieved just a short time ago ^[5]. His ADP should continue to rise in best ball contests, and Jennings warrants a continued investment.

Justin Fields (QB, NYJ)

Underdog ADP: 103.8 (QB10)

One Week Change: 1.80 ADP Rise

There are very few quarterbacks in the NFL with the level of rushing upside that Justin Fields possesses. He’s averaging 23.1 FPG over his last 17 healthy starts, going over 25.0 Underdog points seven times in that span (more than Patrick Mahomes, who is going nearly twenty picks higher in best ball drafts).

Our local macro data expert, Ryan Heath, concluded that each of the top-9 most predictive QB stats “measures rushing in whole or in part”.

The concept of a hyper-mobile QB being a “cheat code” in fantasy football has been longstanding knowledge, since Rich Hribar unveiled this “Konami Code” back in 2013. These dual-threat QBs are even more valuable in best ball contests because the impact of those spike-week performances is magnified.

Fields’ high-risk, high-reward play style has been the one constant in an otherwise volatile career. A complete overhaul of the Jets coaching staff ^[6], with Tyrod Taylor as the next-best option at QB, leads me to believe Fields will have a much longer leash than he did with the Steelers. Fields’ 2022 season with the Bears remains the lone instance in which he started 14+ games. That season, he finished as the QB6 with seven spike week performances (>25.0 Underdog points).

Fields’ fantasy upside doesn’t rest solely on the shoulders of his ability to scramble and make something out of nothing (but it certainly helps); In his six starts in 2024, Fields led all QBs in scramble FPG (5.9). The Jets have done well to improve their offensive line this offseason ^[7], after a year in which that unit was continually rotating, and struggling to run-block effectively ^[8]. Fields averages 6.3 designed run plays per game in his healthy starts over the last two years, and an effective O-line should net greater production on those attempts.

Fields’ rushing upside will be complemented by a healthy rapport he already has with the Jets’ WR1, Garrett Wilson (they played together at Ohio State). Fields also benefits from having one of the premier pass-catching backs in the league at his disposal, Breece Hall, who is averaging the 2nd-most receiving YPG over the last two years. With the full support of HC Aaron Glenn, I expect Fields to have an opportunity for a career-best year in 2025.

That belief appears to be shared, as Fields’ ADP is on the rise as one of the most popular mid-round, high-upside QB picks. I believe he warrants significant exposure even with this rising cost.

Fallers

Stefon Diggs (WR, NE)

Underdog ADP: 79.1 (WR45)

One Week Change: 4.30 ADP Fall

The unease behind investing in Diggs right now feels like a slight overreaction. Underdog drafters are taking him after receivers like Jayden Reed or Deebo Samuel, who failed to go over 15.0 Underdog points more than three times last season (while Diggs did so four times in eight games). This is likely due to Diggs’ extracurricular activities this offseason and the uncertainty behind the recovery process from his ACL injury.

Predicting the type of return-to-play we’ll see from NFL athletes who have experienced an ACL tear is tricky. There will always be a high level of risk when investing in these players, but it’s not unheard of for WRs to be fantasy-relevant in the year following surgery. This article analyzed this type of situation for receivers. It concluded that wide receivers generally performed well in their first year following ACL surgery, and more specifically, players who were considered elite fantasy options. Diggs’ truly “elite” days may be behind him, but his presence and participation in OTAs should instill confidence in him as a value pick in best ball contests right now.

As the 2nd receiving option in a C.J. Stroud-led Houston offense last season, Diggs displayed some high-level play before his injury. His 0.114 average separation score ranked 18th-best, his 0.123 1D/RR ranked 7th-best, and his 12.3 Underdog FPG would be good for a WR17 finish across a full season. He now joins a Patriots offense that features one of the hottest up-and-coming QBs, Drake Maye, in a wide-open WR room.

Despite having the worst pass-blocking O-line in the league by a wide margin ^[9], Maye had an impressive rookie season; his 77.6% adjusted completion rate ranked 13th-best, and his 52.7% highly accurate throw rate ranked 11th-best. The Patriots have also made significant improvements this offseason; first, by hiring Mike Vrabel as HC, and second, by completely revamping their offensive line ^[10]. Even if the O-line does not improve overnight, it won’t take much to be more effective than it was in 2024. Either way, Maye has proved he’s one of the best QBs in the league when facing pressure:

Metrics when facing pressure (min. 100 pressured dropbacks)

These marks would rank 11th-best, 9th-best, 6th-best, 5th-best, and 10th-best respectively. Any sort of uptick in the percentage of clean pockets will create more catchable targets for Diggs (Maye had a 79.3% catchable throw rate on non-pressured throws).

Diggs is also joining a WR room that is completely devoid of talent. No Patriots receiver ranked inside the top-50 in Average Separation Score, YPRR, receiving YPG, 1D/RR, or targets per game last season. Their 2024 2nd-round draft pick, Ja’Lynn Polk, however, ranked first in drop rate (16.1%), while also having the lowest YPRR in the league (0.38). It’s safe to say that a recovering Diggs should still be able to run circles around this Patriots WR room.

Interestingly enough, Underdog drafters are not just shying away from Diggs, but also increasing their exposure to the Patriots' newest rookie WR, Kyle Williams, instead (despite the Patriots' recent history of missing majorly on these sorts of picks) ^[11]. The historical hit rate (defined purely by snap share) on day two wide receivers is a measly 26.3%. Of the 23 receivers drafted in the third round in the last five seasons, 15 were held under 250 receiving yards as a rookie. Kyle Williams will have to claw his way up a crowded depth chart featuring 9+ receivers fighting for a roster spot.

Diggs is heading into his 11th NFL season at 31 years old and is coming off a significant ACL injury. There is a risk, given that his best days are likely behind him, but he’s in a favorable situation with a path to considerable volume. I’ll happily buy the dip in ADP cost, but I’d be wary if it rises back anywhere near the top-40 WRs.

Colston Loveland (TE, Chi)

Underdog ADP: 120.7 (TE10)

One Week Change: 2.30 ADP Fall

The Bears' decision to draft Colston Loveland with the 10th overall pick should indicate the type of usage we can expect from him with Ben Johnson as the new head coach. In 2024, Johnson ran two TE sets at the 3rd-highest rate in the league (32.2%), with Sam LaPorta seeing the 8th-highest route share in 11 personnel among TEs (74.0%). Loveland is in line for significant volume, and his ADP drop is a sign that people have yet to figure out the Bears’ ambiguous receiver room, or have concerns about his shoulder recovery despite Johnson expecting him to be a full-go for training camp.

Loveland was a historically good prospect and the lone bright spot of the Michigan offense last season. If we account for the three games he missed, his 39.2% receiving yardage market share is the most by any power conference TE in at least 50 years.

Only Brock Bowers averaged more YPRR than Loveland in 2023 (2.65 vs 2.38), and only Tyler Warren surpassed him in 2024 (2.77 vs 2.67) out of all Power Conference TEs. Loveland has been noted as a natural pass catcher with a crisp and explosive route-running ability. Scott Barrett has even called Loveland a “richer man’s Sam LaPorta,” and I’m taking his falling 120.7 ADP straight to the bank.

With Scott’s words lingering in the back of my mind, I salivate over what Johnson can do with one of the best TE prospects of the last decade. We saw LaPorta set the rookie TE reception record (86) on his way to an overall TE1 finish in 2023. The Bears' passing attack is primed to explode in 2025, thanks to a coach heralded as the best offensive mind in the NFL over the last three years ^[12]. Johnson has already vocalized how impressed they’ve been with Loveland so far, and I expect him to be utilized as the Bears’ premier slot receiver in 2025.

The Bears also have arguably the most improved O-line this offseason ^[13], and that bolstered offensive front should help Caleb Williams meet the lofty expectations set when he was drafted first overall last year ^[14]. Chicago has been making all the right moves, and Loveland is poised to be a significant beneficiary of a much-improved offense. I am happily buying Loveland’s ADP dip as a player I believe will heavily outperform his current TE10 ranking.